With 21% of all precincts reporting, Washington caucusers are giving John Kerry a large lead but giving Howard Dean a small sliver of hope. Kerry leads Dean, 44%-28%, with Dennis Kucinich perhaps looking at his first pledged delegates in the race, coming in third with 15%. John Edwards is trailing at an embarassing fourth with 5%. Fox News reports Kerry at 52% and Kucinich and Edwards tied at 7%, with the same number of precincts.

Assuming the numbers do not shift significantly, Washington demonstrates that Edwards still cannot carry anything outside of the South and in fact shows poorly in any state that doesn't drawl, as I said last Tuesday. Dean will get a significant number of delegates, but Kerry will continue to add to his lead as well as to the regions in the US where he has won. Michigan, which is extending its caucus hours in Detroit and will report results later than expected, will also give Kerry a large number of delegates if pre-caucus polls prove accurate.

Kerry rolls on, and everyone else seems noncompetitive at this stage. The nomination may well be decided after Wisconsin as Democrats scramble to board the Kerry bandwagon.

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