Despite the efforts of Syria and its ally Hezbollah in the south, the reformers in Lebanon have delivered a historic victory in parliamentary elections this weekend. Saad Hariri took his revenge for his father's assassination by driving out the pro-Syrian politicians from northern Lebanon, capturing three-quarters of the contested seats and defying traditional clan-based electoral politics:

Opponents of Syrian domination claimed a stunning majority victory in the final round of Lebanon's parliamentary elections on Sunday night in a rebellion touched off by the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri four months ago.

An anti-Syrian alliance that tried to bridge religious lines and was led by Mr. Hariri's son, 35-year-old Saad Hariri, a Sunni Muslim, won at least 21 of 28 contested seats in northern Lebanon, the last polling area in the elections that have been staggered over the past four weekends. That gave the alliance a majority in the next 128-seat Parliament.

It was a startling change in the way politics have usually been carried out here - along strict clan and religious lines and long under the control of Syria - and perhaps an example of a greater yearning for democracy in the Arab world.

The election was the first to be held in nearly 30 years without the presence of Syrian troops, who arrived in 1976 early in Lebanon's civil war and were forced to leave under international pressure in April.

"According to incomplete results, we are headed to total victory," one of the opposition candidates, Boutros Harb, told Future television, which is owned by the Hariri family, one of the wealthiest in Lebanon.

Suleiman Franjieh, a Maronite Christian who is a former cabinet minister and the scion of a major clan allied with Syria, conceded his side was heading for defeat in the north. Reflecting Christian worries over increased Muslim political strength, he told Lebanese television, "What we feared is happening."

The previous weekend, it appeared that the pro-Syrian forces had all the momentum. Michel Aoun had won in that regional balloting with his alliance to pro-Syrian forces, despite his earlier iconic status as a resister to occupation. Most expected the north to follow suit, and some openly wondered if Syria's intelligence services still had the ability to penetrate Lebanon's electoral process.

Now Hariri will have the majority in the legislature, if the numbers hold up, and will control government policy regarding their former occupier. That doesn't make Aoun happy at all. After accusing him of vote-buying and exploiting sectarian differences to win his elections, Aoun announced that his faction will refuse to cooperate with Hariri in the new parliament:

Aoun accused Hariri of buying votes and playing on sectarian differences to secure victory in northern Lebanon, ruling out any chance of teaming up with him in parliament.

"We will be in the opposition. We can't be with a majority that reached (parliament) through corruption," he said.

Saad Hariri will be the new Prime Minister, if he wants, although he has not yet announced whether he will seek that position. Of greater consequence will be the election for Speaker of Parliament, a position that has gone to a Shi'ite by tradition. Hariri has already announced that his bloc will not support the re-election of the current speaker, the pro-Syrian Nabih Berri, who allied his Amal party with Hezbollah in the south and represents a strong pro-Syrian position in Parliament.

The course of the next four years appears to be set, as the Hariri-led government will pursue policies which pull away from Syrian influence -- and Lebanon has its own elected government for the first time in decades. It's an amazing and dramatic result for a country who appeared to be prostrate under the Syrian thumb until the US/UK-led Coalition "destabilized" the Middle East and parked itself on Syria's eastern border. May this lead to even more "destabilization" and the furtherance of the wave of democratization to a region parched of freedom.

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Tracked on June 20, 2005 9:29 AM

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