I will not predict who George Bush will nominate to fill the open seat on the Supreme Court, now that he has selected John Roberts to succeed the late William Rehnquist as Chief Justice. He has many fine jurists from which to choose, including Michael Luttig, Michael McConnell, and Edith Hollan Jones, the latter of which I strongly suspect will get onto Bush's short list this time around. However, if I had a voice at the White House on this selection, I would suggest Justice Janice Rogers Brown.

Janice Rogers Brown has just taken her place on the DC Circuit court, the same appellate bench from which Roberts served prior to his nomination. However, unlike Roberts, she served for several years on a state Supreme Court, that of the nation's most populous state, California. Her background gives her near-impeccable conservative status while presenting enough flexibility for libertarian leanings. Rather than hiding herself through judicial inscrutability, she has a long and public track record of her philosophies, and document demands will place no particular strain on the process.

But apart from all of that, a Brown nomination would put the Democrats in a very difficult position -- one which they desperately tried to avoid by filibustering her for four years. As a black female vying for the first such appointment to the Supreme Court, she would create a huge headache for all of those who assailed Bush for nominating a white male from a "privileged" background to replace Sandra Day O'Connor.

Moreover, the Senate Democrats themselves -- especially the seven which pledged not to filibuster Brown in the MOU for her appellate confirmation -- made it clear that they could live with her on the federal bench. That isn't a complete immunity from attack for a nomination to the next level, but it puts them in a tough-sell position to claim that she suddenly doesn't qualify even though they just confirmed her to the second most important federal bench in June. Even if the Gang of 14 dissolves over this issue, the GOP still wins by passing the Byrd option and eliminating the Sword of Damocles threat of filibustering on judicial nominations for the rest of Bush's term in office, a strategic loss that the Democrats will be loathe to take.

One more point that the Democrats will keep in mind: in terms of Supreme Court openings, the Republicans are still playing on their side of the 50-yard line. The Democrats need to keep as much leverage as possible in case Justices Stevens, Breyer, Ginsburg, or Souter step down, or even Kennedy. If Bush can push through a replacement for any of those five without a credible filibuster threat, they will have no options left.

Some will say that Bush lacks the political capital to push that through a recalcitrant Senate. I disagree. With the 2006 elections looming closer and the judiciary remaining one of the hot-button issues across the entire base, the Republican caucus cannot afford to push back against George Bush now. Bush has never played it safe in politics, and don't expect to see him start hedging bets now with one more election cycle to manage.

Janice Rogers Brown would make an excellent Supreme Court jurist. She has repeatedly demonstrated her intelligence, wit, clear legal thinking, and ability to apply the law equally and equitably while respecting the separation of powers as written into the Constitution. Her elevation to the highest court would cement Bush's legacy as the boldest and perhaps most politically successful President to occupy the White House in decades.

UPDATE: Stephen Bainbridge puts the odds on a Brown nomination at 20-1. Actually, I tend to agree at this point, although obviously I believe it to be the best choice. Surprisingly, he doesn't give odds on Edith Hollan Jones at all, and I disagree with him about Gonzalez. The base has had enough gameplaying with the Roberts nomination, and it will not sit still for Gonzalez. It will be seen as a cave to the Democrats, who would consider themselves lucky (in private) to get that much of a centrist.

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» Disappointment from hangingontonothing.com
President Bush announced today that he will re-submit John Roberts as a nominee, this time for Chief Justice to take over the late Justice Rehnquist. While others, in a knee-jerk fashion, see this as a good political move, I see it as the easy way out... [Read More]

Tracked on September 5, 2005 3:05 PM

» Hail To The (New) Chief from Hard Starboard
....And his name will be John Roberts: President Bush on Monday nominated John Roberts to succeed William H. Rehnquist as chief justice, and called on the Senate to confirm him before the Supreme Court opens its fall term on October 3. "I am ho... [Read More]

Tracked on September 5, 2005 3:25 PM

» Associate Justice: Three Words… from The Unalienable Right
…Janice Rogers Brown. Watch Chuck Schumer and Kanye West both spontaneously combust. Ed at Captain’s Quarters agrees. Orin Kerr at The Volokh Conspiracy thinks it’s unlikely. ... [Read More]

Tracked on September 5, 2005 6:09 PM

» Good Choice from The Florida Masochist
Since O'Connor was only one of two women on the court, I'm guessing it will come down to Brown, Jones, or Clement. I've made it known before in earlier blog posts that I like Janice Rogers Brown. Dare the Democrats to fillibuster a black woman for the ... [Read More]

Tracked on September 5, 2005 7:11 PM

» SCOTUS Watch: President Bush Nominates Judge John Roberts for Chief Justice from FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog
US President George W. Bush (R) shakes hands with John G. Roberts after he announced him as nominee for Chief Justice of the Supreme Court in the Oval Office in Washington, DC. Reuters has Bush picks Roberts to succeed Rehnquist. President George W.... [Read More]

Tracked on September 6, 2005 12:01 AM

» SCOTUS Watch: President Bush Nominates Judge John Roberts for Chief Justice from FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog
US President George W. Bush (R) shakes hands with John G. Roberts after he announced him as nominee for Chief Justice of the Supreme Court in the Oval Office in Washington, DC. Reuters has Bush picks Roberts to succeed Rehnquist. President Ge... [Read More]

Tracked on September 6, 2005 12:12 AM

» Janice! Janice! Janice! from The Theocrats
Adam (I blithely assume) and I are leading the cheers for Janice Rogers Brown. She’s from California, she’s a libertarian, she’s willing to speak her mind and she was recently confirmed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circui... [Read More]

Tracked on September 6, 2005 1:11 PM