If al-Qaeda in Iraq reads Western news sources, and their media-savvy but tactically insane recent communications suggest they do, they may soon decide that their operation has blown its cover completely. After an AQ associate dropped a dime on Zarqawi, they now have a much larger security breach than they knew:

Iraq's national security adviser said Thursday a "huge treasure" of documents and computer records was seized after the raid on terror leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's hideout, giving the Iraqi government the upper hand in its fight against al-Qaida in Iraq.

National Security Adviser Mouwafak al-Rubaie also said he believed the security situation in the country would improve enough to allow a large number of U.S.-led forces to leave Iraq by the end of this year, and a majority to depart by the end of next year. "And maybe the last soldier will leave Iraq by mid-2008," he said.

Al-Rubaie said a laptop, flashdrive and other documents were found in the debris after the airstrike that killed the al-Qaida in Iraq leader last week outside Baqouba, and more information has been uncovered in raids of other insurgent hideouts since then.

He called it a "huge treasure ... a huge amount of information."

When asked how he could be sure the information was authentic, al-Rubaie said "there is nothing more authentic than finding a thumbdrive in his pocket."

Coalition forces picked up quite a bit of intelligence after other captures, and we saw the effects in rapid raids and domino-style takedowns of small parts of the AQI network. When we hit the leader, it allowed the Iraqis and the US to get solid information on the entire network. We saw the effects of this when Coalition forces doubled their initial raid targets in the aftermath of Zarqawi's demise, hitting 39 sites instead of the initial 17.

Insurgencies fail when they lose cohesion and the governments they fight gain enough intelligence to roll up their operations. AQI is in the process of finding this out. It also puts the other insurgents at risk depending on their coordination with AQI, and I suspect we'll find out that the Ba'athist dead-enders had more links to Zarqawi than we know.

Will it end all of the insurgencies? Of course not, but it will make them much less effective in coordination, recruitment, and proper training. Those issues had already caused Zarqawi a great deal of concern, and with him and his closest associates either dead or captured, that will debilitate them to the point of nonentities soon enough.

Prime Minister Maliki has a plan for the other native insurgents: amnesty. However, his proposal has a clause to which the US will plainly object, which allows terrorists who have conducted attacks on US forces in the past to walk free if they lay down their arms:

In addition to announcing the security crackdown, al-Maliki opened the door Wednesday for talks with insurgents opposed to the country's political process as part of a national reconciliation initiative, but he said any negotiations would exclude terrorist groups. The plan could include a pardon for some prisoners.

A senior White House official said the Iraqis have indicated that they are looking for "models" in national reconciliation. Another official said al-Maliki had inquired whether Bosnians or South Africans might be able to provide expertise.

"There is also a space for dialogue with insurgents who opposed the political process and now want to join the political process after offering guarantees," al-Maliki said. "But on the other hand we are not going to negotiate with the criminals who have killed the innocent."

A top al-Maliki adviser told The Washington Post the plan could include pardons for those who had attacked U.S. troops. Adnan Ali al-Kadhimi told the Post "there is a patriotic feeling among the Iraqi youth and the belief that those attacks are legitimate acts of resistance and defending their homeland. These people will be pardoned definitely, I believe."

This sounds appalling, but it probably reflects the reality of Iraq today, and will be the only realistic way to bring an end to the infighting. We can demand that Mailiki rescind the offer, but a refusal would only burnish his credentials as an independent leader. In fact, we should protest to give him that chance. I would like nothing more that to see the cowards hand from the nearest gallows, but insisting on that point would likely make almost everyone ineligible for the amnesty. Maliki has already narrowed down eligibility to those who have not attacked civilians, which will prove problematic enough to enforce.

At some point, Iraq needs a national reconciliation if it is to avoid a civil war. The Shi'a and Kurds will have to find ways to connect to the Sunni minority on a rational political basis, and the best way to get to that stage is to combine a crackdown on insurgents and a ban on militias with a general amnesty for those who wish to return home and live normal lives. Their motivation has not been radical Islam in most cases but sectarian hatreds and a reaction to occupation. If we want to stabilize Iraq, we will probably need to bend on this concern, as hard as it will be, in order to hasten that reconciliation and help the Iraqis move farther away from politics at gunpoint.

So far, Maliki has hit all the right notes in his short tenure as Prime Minister. He has acted with much more alacrity and conviction than Ibrahim al-Jaafari, who got forced into withdrawing from the run for Prime Minister. We need to continue to support Maliki and his efforts to bring his nation to healing.

UPDATE: Rick Moran shares my reluctant acknowledgement of the necessity of this amnesty offer:

I don’t like it any more than you do.

The prospect of granting a limited amnesty in Iraq – especially to those Iraqis who participated in attacks on Americans – sticks in my craw. I believe that amnesty would cheapen the sacrifice made by the more than 2,500 Americans who have given their lives in Iraq and would be a slap in the face to the families of the fallen.

But all things considered, it may be the price of a full, unqualified victory in Iraq – a stable democratic government that promises full political participation for all Iraqis and that would be an example to follow for the rest of the autocratic Middle East.

This was the goal when we initiated the overthrow of Saddam. And achieving that goal would hearten democrats in the entire Muslim world while striking a huge blow at al Qaeda and their brothers in terror across the Middle East.

I believe this falls into the category of keeping to our long-term strategy rather than short-term tactics. It's not the best of all worlds, but if it hastens the end of the Iraqi insurgencies, then we should not obstruct the Iraqi government from carrying out this policy. Hot Air has similar thoughts.

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry is

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Zarqawi's Thumb Drive Fingers Associates, Maliki Tries Amnesty:

» 'Beginning of the End of Al Qaeda in Iraq' from It Shines For All
"Iraq's national security adviser said Thursday a 'huge treasure' of documents and computer records was seized after the raid on terror leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's hideout, giving the Iraqi government the upper hand in its fight against al-Qaida in I... [Read More]

Tracked on June 15, 2006 8:44 AM

» Deal with the devil: Maliki courts insurgents from Hot Air
Hard choices. ... [Read More]

Tracked on June 15, 2006 9:02 AM

» First Cup 06.15.06 from bRight & Early
... [Read More]

Tracked on June 15, 2006 9:07 AM

» The Ripples In The Iraqi Pond from Flopping Aces
Not only did we kill an important symbol to Al-Qaeda when we bombed Zarqawi, the documents and intelligence seized afterwards appears to have been that much more valuable: The killing of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi marks the “beginning of the end”... [Read More]

Tracked on June 15, 2006 10:58 AM

» It Is All About Perspective - It Is Beginning of the End of Al Qaeda in Iraq from Webloggin
Perspective makes all the difference when reporting on the war against terror. From a simple missing headline, like It Is Beginning of the End of Al Qaeda in Iraq to the small editorial comments that are interspersed throughout reports of the news as r... [Read More]

Tracked on June 15, 2006 11:01 AM

» Progress or Naivete? from Ninth State
I know it’s not very cool or post-modern to be optimistic about much of anything these days, but hearing from the troops and citizens in Iraq, I have a hard time feeling that being hopeful about Iraq’s future is wide-eyed naivete. ... [Read More]

Tracked on June 15, 2006 11:26 AM

» Operation Mountain Thrust from Fore Left!
It will be quite interesting to see where this might lead. Al Douri, anyone? [Read More]

Tracked on June 15, 2006 1:49 PM

» Zarqawi Docs and intel Lead to 700 captures, 100 dead from Noblesse Oblige
There will also be a third thrust — now that the Iraqi forces are proving effective the international media will turn on them. They will become “death sqauds” ill mannered collectives of militias, they will be torturers, and ultimatel... [Read More]

Tracked on June 15, 2006 1:54 PM

» One From The Thumb from Ed Driscoll.com
Ed Morrissey writes:If al-Qaeda in Iraq reads Western news sources, and their media-savvy but tactically insane recent communications suggest they do, they may soon decide that their operation has blown its cover completely. After an AQ associate dropp... [Read More]

Tracked on June 15, 2006 3:09 PM

» One From The Thumb from Ed Driscoll.com
Ed Morrissey writes:If al-Qaeda in Iraq reads Western news sources, and their media-savvy but tactically insane recent communications suggest they do, they may soon decide that their operation has blown its cover completely. After an AQ associate dropp... [Read More]

Tracked on June 15, 2006 3:10 PM

» Iraqi Amnesty and the Real World from Max Conservative
Iraqi Amnesty and the Real World [Read More]

Tracked on June 16, 2006 4:10 AM

» Missive Retaliation from Hard Starboard
Here is what constitutes al Donka's three-pronged counterattack against the three big U.S. victories in Iraq over the past week (the newly-elected Iraqi government, the righteous detonation of "Emir" Zarqawi (man, but that name is difficult to type),... [Read More]

Tracked on June 16, 2006 1:01 PM