Republican Congressional leaders have told the White House that they will not bend on any normalization scheme that allows those who entered the US illegally to have a path to citizenship without leaving the country -- and so no immigration reform will happen in 2006. They will not proclaim the effort dead out of respect to George Bush, but they will not consider the broader reforms that the Senate wants, and the Senate will not act on border security alone:

In a defeat for President Bush, Republican congressional leaders said Tuesday that broad immigration legislation is all but doomed for the year, a victim of election-year concerns in the House and conservatives' implacable opposition to citizenship for millions of illegal immigrants.

"Our number one priority is to secure the border, and right now I haven't heard a lot of pressure to have a path to citizenship," said Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., announcing plans for an unusual series of hearings to begin in August on Senate-passed immigration legislation. ...

White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said after Hastert's announcement of hearings, "The president is undeterred. We are committed and we have been working very hard with members (of Congress) to see if we can reach consensus on an issue the American people have said they want action on."

In the Senate, Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., told reporters he welcomed hearings. "As much examination of the House bill and Senate bill as possible is good," he said.

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., a principal author of the Senate-passed measure, offered to testify at House hearings. Sen. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, chairman of the Judiciary Committee, said, "I'm hopeful" of a compromise before the elections.

Two thoughts come to mind on this announcement. First, I find it interesting and a little appalling that the GOP leadership in Congress waited for George Bush to leave the country before making this announcement. They have had plenty of opportunity to make this announcement before he took off for his EU conferences; this kind of tactic looks like a stab in the back, even if it isn't intended that way.

Second, it looks like the GOP wants to win its base back rather than attempt broad-based legislation. In this case, that may well prove successful. The midterms have more risk for the House than anywhere else, and the Democrats have aimed their main efforts at capturing the lower chamber. This may be an acknowledgement of too much risk in November and offering a tough stance on immigration in order to drive conservatives back to the polls.

That strategy carries some risks, but mostly for the Senate, and that mostly for the moderates. The issue of border security has received high-profile attention, and if this session of Congress still produces nothing significant, the blame will fall on the upper chamber, especially the moderate and liberal Senators that insisted on linking border security to the larger issue of immigration. The House may well force the Senate to de-link the issues and come together on a straight border-security bill before the elections.

One fact is certain: this issue isn't dead, even if immigration reform is on life support.

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