For decades after the end of World War II, no one dared mention the acquisition of nuclear weapons in Japan. This taboo came from having suffered the only use of nuclear weapons in wartime as well as a revulsion to any offensive military capability after the atrocities Japan perpetrated in the first half of the 20th century. However, with Kim Jong-Il rattling his own nuclear saber, the taboo has begun to lift for the Japanese:

Shoichi Nakagawa, chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party's policy research council, said he believed Japan would adhere to its policy of not arming itself with nuclear weapons but added that debate over whether to go nuclear was necessary.

"We need to find a way to prevent Japan from coming under attack," Nakagawa told a television program, referring to what Tokyo should do following North Korea's reported nuclear test.

"There is argument that nuclear weapons are one such option. I want to make clear that I am not the one saying this, and Japan will stick to its nonnuclear principles, but we need to have active discussions," he said.

Nakagawa also said the constitution does not prohibit the possession of nuclear arms, adding that having such weapons might reduce or remove the risk of being attacked.

The Japanese haven't yet come to the point where anyone will overtly support going nuclear -- not yet. Nakagawa framed this very carefully. Japan will remain non-nuclear ... but only after we discuss it a while. The topic will advance incrementally until the Japanese feel comfortable discussing it in real terms.

And who is the intended audience for this incremental approach? Certainly the Japanese electorate, so that the taboo will eventually disappear altogether, but I'd say they're not the primary target for this announcement. Nakagawa and the ruling party wants Kim to understand that they will inspire an arms race in the region that they cannot possibly win with their economic woes. More importantly, the Japanese want the Chinese to understand the same message.

If Japan does decide to go nuclear and take the shackles off their military, it will transform the balance of power in the region in a profound manner. Right now, the Chinese have begun to expand their blue-water navy in order to eclipse the American supremacy in the western Pacific. The US has allowed them to get a head start, and we still have no responded with new orders for expanding the Pacific Fleet. However, if Japan decides to become a full partner in the region, they won't content themselves with building nuclear weapons -- they may well revive their own navy to vie for control in the Pacific, partnering with the US on a new level for regional security.

People rightly wonder whether the Chinese will bother to enforce the sanctions on North Korea, but that's really a secondary consideration. The US and Japan want China to yank on Kim's choker chain and disarm his nukes. The sanctions are one such tool, but the sanctions alone won't do it. Only China can force Kim to end his nuclear flirtation, and Japan is playing all the right notes to motivate them.

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For decades after the end of World War II, no one dared mention the acquisition of nuclear weapons in Japan. This taboo came from having suffered the only use of nuclear weapons in wartime as well as a revulsion to [Read More]

Tracked on October 16, 2006 7:26 AM

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You did it, Man! You, the mental pillar and eternal sun of the Korean people! You've done what no other person in 61 years has done: you have the Japanese openly talking about going nuclear: We need to find a [Read More]

Tracked on October 16, 2006 11:59 PM

» Congratulations, Comrade Dear Leader! from Public Secrets: from the files of the Irishspy
You did it, Man! You, the mental pillar and eternal sun of the Korean people! You've done what no other person in 61 years has done: you have the Japanese openly talking about going nuclear: We need to find a [Read More]

Tracked on October 17, 2006 12:01 AM