Captain's Quarters -

The US and Iraqi armies began their sweep of Sadr City in force today, tackling the toughest nut of the new Baghdad surge strategy. First indications show that the Mahdi Army has melted away:

Hundreds of U.S. soldiers entered the Shiite stronghold of Sadr City on Sunday in the first major push into the area since an American-led security sweep began last month around Baghdad.

Soldiers conducted house-to-house searches, but met no resistance in a district firmly in the hands of the Madhi Army militia led by radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, said Lt. Col. David Oclander.

The move into Sadr City came following negotiations with political leaders in the neighborhood.

Al-Sadr had withdrawn his militia under intense pressure from the government, but there were worries that a large-scale military push without political clearance could bring a backlash and jeopardize the entire security effort.

"The indication that we are getting is a lot of the really bad folks have gone into hiding," Oclander said.

The new effort included a raid on a mosque in Baghdad. The US quickly announced that mosque raids were only to be used as a last resort; otherwise, the military would respect the sanctity of religious places. In this case, the US captured three terrorists attempting to hide, including a suspected bomb-maker.

The lack of response from the Mahdis appears to be a long-term strategy. They must understand that if the Americans and Iraqis can hold these neighborhoods for a substantial period of time, their chances of reinfiltration become smaller and smaller. A population freed from terrorists and protection racketeers will not easily allow their return, and if the Nouri al-Maliki government can clean out the police forces of collaborators, they will find it much easier to repel terrorists later.

In fact, Maliki has given strong indications of his intent in that regard. He announced that he will shake up his cabinet and pursue charges against those in the government with links to terrorism:

Iraq's prime minister said Saturday he will reshuffle his Cabinet within two weeks and pursue criminal charges against political figures linked to extremists as a sign of his government's resolve to restore stability during the U.S.-led security crackdown in Baghdad.

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki also told The Associated Press during an interview at his Green Zone office that Iraq will work hard to ensure the success of a regional security conference. ...

Al-Maliki has been under pressure from the U.S. to bring order into his factious government of Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds since it took office last May. Rumors of Cabinet changes have surfaced before, only to disappear because of pressure from coalition members seeking to keep power.

Nevertheless, al-Maliki said there would be a Cabinet reshuffle "either this week or next."

After the changes are announced, al-Maliki said he would undertake a "change in the ministerial structure," presumably consolidating and streamlining the 39-member Cabinet.

The prime minister did not say how many Cabinet members would be replaced. But some officials said about nine would lose their jobs, including all six Cabinet members loyal to radical anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, an al-Maliki ally.

If he follows through on these promises, it would show a rather significant fall from grace for Moqtada al-Sadr. Maliki obviously fears Sadr less than an American withdrawal, which gives another clear indication of the realities in Baghdad. The Americans still have the most powerful hand to play in the Iraqi capital, and Bush has played it effectively since last November.

If Sadr loses his six Cabinet positions, he likely will lose his influence in the National Assembly as well, where he currently has 30 seats under his control. His flight to Iran has apparently eroded his influence to the point where Maliki no longer fears the consequences of losing those 30 seats (about 15% of the Assembly), which means that the American push has given Maliki other alliances on which to rely. Sadr, whose influence has waxed and waned a number of times in the post-invasion period, appears on his way out of power.

The reason? The sharp drop in violence and death in the capital since the surge was announced has given Maliki new credibility as a national leader. Before, his tenure was marked by exploding terrorism and mayhem. Now, with law and order starting to establish itself in the streets of Baghdad, he has the opportunity to be the man who saved Iraq from the sectarian impulses of the radicals.

Maliki has a long way to go to get there, but it looks like he has momentum on his side at the moment, and the good sense to see how to maintain it.