Pardon Me?
Speaking of pardons, Al Kamen of the Washington Post has a contest to pick the date when Scooter Libby will get his from George Bush:
U.S. District Judge Reggie B. Walton has set June 5 for sentencing. He has discretion to order Libby immediately to prison or let him stay out until his appeals are exhausted. So, assuming that Bush -- who could pardon immediately if he wanted -- won't allow Libby to spend time behind bars, he might need to act then.If not, the next likely pardon time would be when the U.S. Appeals Court for the D.C. Circuit announces its decision on Libby's appeal. That can take many months. The court recently has been averaging about 15 months from appeal to decision. By that schedule, it could rule on Libby's appeal in September 2008, right before the election.
If Libby loses the appeal, Walton may decide then to order him to prison. This would make it decision time again for Bush. It's not a squeeze the White House wants to be in.
The best hope for the White House would be if Libby stays out pending appeal and the appeals court doesn't rule until after the election. Then a pardon might come along with the Thanksgiving turkey or around Christmas.
Will Bush pardon Libby at all? It would compound the political baggage of the conviction if he did. The issuance of a pardon would create a firestorm on Capitol Hill that would launch a hundred investigations, at a time when the Bush administration needs to calm the waters and hope to retain enough influence to keep the Democrats from shutting down the war.
A pardon will not likely get any attention until after the appeals courts have had a chance to rule. The Bush administration would not want to take a hit on a pardon if Libby can find vindication through the normal legal process. It also depends on the sentencing, which appears to favor somewhere between 18 months and three years in prison. If Judge Walton decides to give Libby home detention instead -- he's hardly a danger to society, and the circumstances of the prosecution seem a little suspect -- then Bush may not bother at all.
I think it's likely that Walton will sentence Libby to prison time but allow him to remain free pending appeal, not being a flight risk or a violent man. In that case, the appeals court should rule sometime next year on his case, making it more clear what Libby's chances for resolving the case himself will be. If that doesn't clear Libby, my guess is that Bush will not act until at least December of 2008, after the 110th Congress closes its session. If Libby goes to prison, expect Bush to pardon him in that time frame. After this Congress heads home for the final time, Bush will have no political considerations to keep him from mitigating Libby's conviction.
You can send your entries to Al Kamen here.
Posted by Ed Morrissey on March 7, 2007 5:45 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (3)
