Captain's Quarters -

The Times of London conducted a major poll of Iraqis to determine their state of mind a month after the beginning of the surge, and it finds the Iraqis rather optimistic. Four hundred pollsters went door to door to speak to over 5,000 Iraqi adults, and found that almost a majority of them preferred life now under the democracy of Nouri al-Maliki rather than the oppression of Saddam Hussein:

The poll highlights the impact the sectarian violence has had. Some 26% of Iraqis - 15% of Sunnis and 34% of Shi’ites - have suffered the murder of a family member. Kidnapping has also played a terrifying role: 14% have had a relative, friend or colleague abducted, rising to 33% in Baghdad.

Yet 49% of those questioned preferred life under Nouri al-Maliki, the prime minister, to living under Saddam. Only 26% said things had been better in Saddam’s era, while 16% said the two leaders were as bad as each other and the rest did not know or refused to answer.

Not surprisingly, the divisions in Iraqi society were reflected in statistics — Sunnis were more likely to back the previous Ba’athist regime (51%) while the Shi’ites (66%) preferred the Maliki government.

Maliki, who derives a significant element of his support from Moqtada al-Sadr, the hardline Shi’ite militant, and his Mahdi army, has begun trying to overcome criticism that his government favours the Shi’ites, going out of his way to be seen with Sunni tribal leaders. He is also under pressure from the US to include more Sunnis in an expected government reshuffle.

The poll suggests a significant increase in support for Maliki. A survey conducted by ORB in September last year found that only 29% of Iraqis had a favourable opinion of the prime minister.

Maliki has gained strength as the US and Iraqi forces have begun to reclaim the streets of Baghdad. No one respects a leader that allows chaos and destruction to prevail, which explains Maliki's low marks last year. Undoubtedly, those played a role in driving Maliki to the position of George Bush, who demanded a free hand to act against the Shi'ite militias as well as Sunni insurgents, al-Qaeda terrorists, and Ba'athist remnants to which Maliki had limited our operations previously.

As Allahpundit at Hot Air notes, the results are not blockbuster material yet:

Another 16% said they both reek. Righties will find cause for hope in those numbers, lefties will wonder why after four years we can’t get a clear majority to prefer life under American occupation to life under the Arab Stalin. Glass half-full, glass half-empty.

The whole poll is like that. You’re better off with the summary at the polling firm’s website than the Times of London article, which misleads a bit in reporting that only 27% of Iraqis say the country is in a state of civil war. That’s accurate as far as it goes, but another 22% say they’re “close” to a civil war but not there yet. TOL neglects to mention that.

Be sure to read the entire Hot Air post for a breakdown of the crosstabs. Allahpundit believes that the Sunnis got oversampled, which would tend to skew the results somewhat, but I'm not sure in which direction. Would that make Maliki's support underreported, or would the surge effort against the Shi'ite militias play towards Sunni desires and therefore inflate Maliki's numbers? Hard to say, but I'd guess the former rather than the latter.

One interesting point about the survey is the difference between Shi'ite and Sunni predictions about the security situation when the US withdraws from Iraq. Most Shi'ites believe it will immediately get better, while Sunnis are split; only 46% think it will get better, while 37% believe it will make matters worse.

I think these numbers are rather encouraging. Within six months, and after a month of intensive clear-and-hold operations, the Maliki government has seen its approval rating almost double. More Iraqis appears optimistic about the future, and even the Sunnis appear more open to optimism. If we can stick to our strategy and stabilize the capital, we can keep momentum on the side of liberty and democracy.

UPDATE: ORB has an interesting set of slides on the survey. One of them notes that a clear majority, 64%, prefer the current political system of a centralized government. That includes a majority of both Shi'ites and Sunnis. Only 21% want a federal system with three autonomous regions, although 72% of the Kurds prefer that, understandably. The Joe Biden model of splitting Iraq only gets support from one in five Iraqis -- perhaps a piece of information Biden should consider.