Florida Is Rudy Country
The key state in the last two presidential elections has been Florida, and pollsters have focused more attention on the Sunshine State the last few years to test the electoral mettle of candidates declared and presumed. Quinnipiac takes the latest look at Florida's political temperature, and it finds Rudy running hot:
Former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani has opened double-digit leads over top 2008 Democratic presidential contenders in Florida, beating either New York Sen. Hillary Clinton or former Sen. John Edwards 50 - 40 percent, and topping Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 52 - 36 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.This compares to a 47 - 42 percent Giuliani lead over Sen. Clinton in a March 7 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. ...
In this latest survey, Giuliani leads the Republican pack with 35 percent, followed by Arizona Sen. John McCain with 15 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 11 percent, former U.S. Senator and actor Fred Thompson at 6 percent and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 5 percent.
With 36 percent, Clinton keeps her lead among Democrats. But former Vice President Al Gore has moved up to 16 percent, followed by Sen. Obama at 13 percent and Edwards at 11 percent.
Rudy has expanded his draw in a state that has produced only thin Republican wins of late in presidential races. The expansion of his margin over Hillary Clinton indicates that he has begun to win over centrists and independents, a constituency that the Democrats cannot afford to lose. Interestingly, the doubling of the margin -- and the attainment of 50% -- comes at a time when Hillary had started to push back against Barack Obama, and issues about Giuliani's marital woes had supposedly begun to bite.
Rudy's numbers against Barack Obama are even more interesting. Obama has recently suffered some criticism for his lack of policy detail and his focus on fuzzy, make-nice themes. That seems to have hampered him in Florida, where he barely gets the Democratic vote in a two-way race against Giuliani. Rudy gets a clear majority against Obama, and a virtual majority against Hillary and John Edwards, who might have expected more of a bump after his decision to stay in the race.
Where does this leave the Republican field? So far, sailing into the Keys. Rudy lapped all of the other candidates with his 35%. John McCain and Newt Gingrich fall within the margin of error of each other at 15% and 11% respectively, showing that McCain is still hanging tough in second place. Romney comes in fifth at 5%, behind two undeclared candidates (Gingrich and Fred Thompson), which cannot be good news after the full-court press Romney has conducted in 2007.
Rudy has managed to overcome his reputation for meanness that critics hung on him during his terms as Mayor. His favorability in Florida, a state with a significant number of New York transplants, exceeds everyone else in the race on both sides of the ticket. His +40 compares to a +2 for Hillary, a +22 for Obama, +25 for Edwards, and +23 for McCain. In fact, Rudy has the only favorable rating above 50%. The only question marks are Romney and Thompson, about whom voters have not yet learned to form a significant opinion.
Rudy seems to have maintained the momentum in Florida. The state's primary doesn't come early in the race, but its influence could be felt from the beginning. If the GOP holds fast to its tradition of lining up behind the frontrunner early, Rudy could have clear seas to the nomination.
Posted by Ed Morrissey on April 3, 2007 5:23 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBacks (0)
Comments (9)
Posted by superdestroyer![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/nav-commenters.gif)
| April 3, 2007 6:52 AM
I suspect that Rudy will have a negative coattail effect. Since he will be running on the opposite side of many issues from Republican Senatorial and Congressional candidates, it will encourage many people to vote Giuliani while voting Democratic on the rest of the ticket.
Giuliani could easily find himself president with a Senate of more than 60 Democratic Senators and a house that will be much more Democratic than it is now. Republicans should be looking for a candidate that will help down ticket instead of just another potential disappointment like Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Do Republicans really want another candidate like Arnold who is acting no different than if California had a Democratic governor?
Posted by Cybrludite![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/nav-commenters.gif)
| April 3, 2007 7:14 AM
I suspect it's because some many of his former supporters from NYC have retired down there...
Posted by Fred's Flags![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/nav-commenters.gif)
| April 3, 2007 7:58 AM
I would beg to disagree. First of all, with Giuliani at the top of the ticket, the Northeast comes into play. It is my opinion that NY and NJ (perhaps Pennsylvania) fall into the GOP electoral column. This is particularly so if his opponent is Hillary. As such, a Giuliani candidacy strengthens the GOP down the ticket, where, in this neck of the woods, the GOP is "thin", to say the least. There is only one GOP seat in all of New England, which could change. The threat to the Upstate NY GOP seats would be eased, somewhat. I think that the GOP base understands that control of Congress will be pivotal and would support both parts of the ticket. With a razor thin Dem majority, pulling in more centrist voters to the GOP ticket is critical. Having an early primary decision might very well be beneficial to this effort. If Giuliani puts things away early the party can concentrate on recruiting solid conservative congressional candidates, funding them properly and getting some decent leadership in the legislative branch.
Posted by LeaningRt![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/nav-commenters.gif)
| April 3, 2007 8:23 AM
I suspect that Rudy will have a negative coattail effect. Since he will be running on the opposite side of many issues from Republican Senatorial and Congressional candidates, it will encourage many people to vote Giuliani while voting Democratic on the rest of the ticket.
Giuliani could easily find himself president with a Senate of more than 60 Democratic Senators and a house that will be much more Democratic than it is now. Republicans should be looking for a candidate that will help down ticket instead of just another potential disappointment like Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Do Republicans really want another candidate like Arnold who is acting no different than if California had a Democratic governor?
Posted by: superdestroyer at April 3, 2007 06:52 AM
Who has more experience battling Democratic bureaucrats than Rudy? I understand the hesitance from many posters on this site to back Rudy based on your socially conservative views. But sooner or later you have to consider who could actually have a chance of winning a general election.
Posted by dixie68![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/nav-commenters.gif)
| April 3, 2007 10:57 AM
I am disappointed to hear that many will not vote for Rudy because he is "mean." I am a social conservative, but Rudy's toughness and so-called meaness are my two main considerations for voting for him. We need a President who has a backbone and is not afraid to show it.
Posted by Lew![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/nav-commenters.gif)
| April 3, 2007 2:54 PM
Rudy has overcome his "meanness" tag? Where did that idea come from?
I'll support Rudy BECAUSE he's mean, not inspite of it! And I full well believe that the core of his support comes from exactly that image. He is the only candidate out there who has a demonstrated track record of hard-nosed bare-knuckled politics, in stark contrast to all the other blow-comb charmers and managers that we get to pick from. If George W. Bush suddenly stood up on his hind legs and shut down the entire Federal Government until he get's the war funding bill he wants out of the Congress, every other candidate in the race would wet their pants - except Rudy. And he hasn't waffled about trying to find a "position" that works with all the one-issue groups in the Republican Party either.
A lot of Americans may disagree with Rudy Giuliani on a lot of issues, but Rudy commands something that no other candidate out there can even approach - respect.
Posted by NoDonkey![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/nav-commenters.gif)
| April 3, 2007 3:37 PM
I'm all for Rudy.
And I don't care about his not having "socially conservative" positions on the issues. Couldn't care less.
Rudy's resume just beats the living tar out of any other candidate out there, no contest.
Brought down the mob. Turned around NYC.
The Democrats are all mouth accompanied by no significant real world accomplishments (and sponsoring a few staffer penned bills in the Senate could be done by any second-grader).
The Republicans have thicker resumes, but none compare with Rudy's.
Posted by conservative democrat![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/nav-commenters.gif)
| April 3, 2007 8:49 PM
Actually I like Rudy, he does seem tough. He also is intelligent and articulate, two traits lacking in our current president. Be advised though, Hillary will be dragging his skeletons out of the closet. Not to mention Mr. Swiftboat himself has said he will back Mitt, Bob Perry I think his name is, that means the primaries might be Rudys biggest hurdle. Mr. nodonkey I have a question for you, If I like Rudy, and I'm a democrat, by proxy does that mean you can't like him now? Just wondering.
Posted by emdfl![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/nav-commenters.gif)
| April 4, 2007 4:04 AM
Just another gun-banning rino from new york. No thanks, Capt., I'll just sit that race out (and so, I suspect, will a hellava lot of other shooters...