April 6, 2007

No Change In Iranian Position After Release

The US has determined that the release of 15 British Navy personnel reflects no great change in the Iranian diplomatic posture. The New York Times reports that the White House believes that the order for the capture came from lower levels, and the decision to release them came only after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wrung as much publicity as he could without any negative consequences:

The Bush administration said Thursday that the release of 15 British sailors and marines held by Iran for two weeks created no new openings in dealing with Tehran, and it urged American allies to return their attention to enforcing new sanctions against Iran.

In public statements and background interviews, White House and State Department officials said that they saw no indications that the release indicated a change of attitude by Iran’s leadership. Neither did they see any more willingness to discuss suspension of its enrichment of uranium — the requirement that President Bush has said Iran must meet before he is willing to accept talks with the country.

One senior official, who like some other officials who discussed the issue spoke on condition of anonymity because he was discussing internal assessments of Iran’s motivation, said that the administration’s internal assessment of the episode, while incomplete, suggested that the seizure of the Britons was “probably not directed from the upper reaches government.” The official said that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad decided on the release because “he understood that they had exploited whatever they could from the incident” and that “declaring them guilty and letting them go was the cleverest way to get out of it.”

We have heard a lot of explanations of the Iranian decisions involved in this crisis, and this is probably as good as any of them. The Iranian government has competing factions within it, and is stressed by a populace that largely, if weakly, opposes their foreign policy. The poor economy and its momentum in decline have also created more cracks in the political landscape, and confidence in Mahmoud Ahmadinejad keeps ebbing away, or so reports have it.

That would explain both why Ahmadinejad acted so quickly to exploit the situation and why he acted rather quickly to end it. Nothing fires people up like humiliating the former colonialists of the region. In that sense, the televised antics seen on Iranian TV -- and then rebroadcast around the world -- equates to the Roman circuses of old. Ahmadinejad got a chance to boost his sagging political fortunes on the cheap, thanks to the British. When it both got old and started to provoke the British, he dropped the entire project on his own terms rather than being forced to do so on British terms -- or American terms.

The British have begun investigating these televised interviews, which were clear violations of the Geneva Convention, a pact that all signatories pledge to follow in any conflict, whether declared or not. The sailors and Marines have indicated that "psychological pressure" came from their captors to make those videos, which could be yet another violation of the GC, depending on its form. More significantly, the British have suspended all boarding operations in the Persian Gulf, which means that the waterways into Iraqi ports could open up once more to terrorists -- a situation that benefits the Iranians most of all.

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Comments (12)

Posted by marvls [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 6, 2007 6:46 AM

The left has already established the standard: Humiliation of prisoners is an act of torture (see Abu Ghraib).
I say the Iranians tortured the British prisoners. Ahmadinejad needs to be brought before the International Courts Tribunal immediately.
BTW, what are the chances the NYTimes publishes this important news on page 1 above the fold (see Abu Ghraib)? After all, they helped establish the standard!

Posted by TomB [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 6, 2007 6:47 AM

Captain,
What Geneva? What Conventions? Iran was and is doing worse things than simply make a few hostages talk on TV and wear Iranian suits and gets away with. This is what we seem not to understand: that country is run by a terrorist and a kidnapper, they are different species altogether, our rules do not apply and they are winning (for now - no more pesky boat searches).

Posted by Lightwave [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 6, 2007 6:57 AM

So Ed, what you're basically saying is that this is a complete and total win for Iran, and a complete and total loss for Britain.

Ahmadinejad got everything he wanted out of this: a humbled and embarrassed UK that has surrendered both on land and now at sea, the chance to shore up support with Iranian hardliners and the people, absolutely zero negative consequences among the Muslim world, a shot at embarrassing Bush by proxy, a parting shot by killing UK soldiers in Basra, and priceless political theater to show how merciful Allah can be to the poor dumb Limeys.

Tony Blair is still warning Iran of his displeasure but at this point he needs to resign early out of pure ineffectiveness and honor for the office he holds. He must realize that he will forever be known as Neville Junior and that the UK will be paying the price for his inaction for the coming decades of internal and external Islamic terrorist attacks they will now face.

The really stark part of this entire debacle is what it means for the US. The US now stands alone. We're it. We're now all that stands between the Muslims and their violent and bloody takeover of the world's oil, and the Dhimmicrats want us to surrender.

Now more than ever it's time for all Americans to realize that leaving Iraq is not viable for a continued free and prosperous world, much less America. The UK, our closest allies, have folded their hand and are packing up their chips from the table. If we surrender in Iraq as well, there will be nothing stopping Islamic fundamentalism from making great advances in Europe, Asia, and Africa.

Maybe when an American city, say Portland or Cincinnati or Charlotte or Minneapolis-St. Paul disappears in a radioactive cloud, the UK and the Dhimmicrats will realize the depth of their errors.

But at the rate 2007 is going, who knows.

Posted by patrick neid [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 6, 2007 7:16 AM

" More significantly, the British have suspended all boarding operations in the Persian Gulf, which means that the waterways into Iraqi ports could open up once more to terrorists -- a situation that benefits the Iranians most of all."

just another example of iran's victory. another perhaps more important one is the restraint it will put on us and others going forward to forestall any action against iran and associated terror regimes when they abduct hostages. the left and others will be all to ready to trot out this episode as proof that we should just wait patiently until they release the hostages.

weakness always induces the bully.

again, think of the entertainment we will all be in for when iran gets the bomb! why we let these acknowledged terror leaders live is one for the history books.........

Posted by docjim505 [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 6, 2007 7:42 AM

Cap'n Ed wrote:

More significantly, the British have suspended all boarding operations in the Persian Gulf, which means that the waterways into Iraqi ports could open up once more to terrorists -- a situation that benefits the Iranians most of all.

Well, I wondered what Blair gave up in exchange for getting his sailors and marines back. Now we know.

Bah.

Somebody call a REAL Navy (i.e. the USN) and tell them to take over the anti-smuggling patrol, then let the Iranians know that ANY interference by Iranian personnel with that patrol will be met with overwhelming and gratuitously bloody force.

Posted by tolkein [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 6, 2007 8:07 AM

The Royal Navy is conducting a full inquiry in order to make sure this does not happen again. This does not mean that we stop boarding ships. It does mean we stop until we make sure this kind of thing does not happen again. That means using warships that can go closer to shore to support boarding parties. The Cornwall is a Type 22 destroyer designed for Cold War activities like hunting submarines in deep water, not for shallow waters.

Look what Iran achieved. Another UN resolution. Demonstrated to everyone that Iran is a provocative law-breaking state. Even Iranian bloggers thought Iran had made a big mistake.

We got our hostages back after 15 days, without humiliating failed rescue missions (444 days in 1979/1980). Many of your commentators seem to think we should have gone to war (US and or UK) over this. I think we got them back with damage to Iran's reputation without any dead bodies and no compromises.

The Prime Minister and Government are in no doubts about the Iranian Government. I expect to see our Naval forces strengthened and Rules of Engagement changed.

Best Wishes from a Labour Party member (and supporter of regime change in Iraq, Iran and, in fact, most of the Middle East). in England.

Posted by patrick neid [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 6, 2007 8:50 AM

tolkein,

while yours may appear to be the voice of reason i fear it is not. every action sets up a series as i said above:

"just another example of iran's victory. another perhaps more important one is the restraint it will put on us and others going forward to forestall any action against iran and associated terror regimes when they abduct hostages. the left and others will be all to ready to trot out this episode as proof that we should just wait patiently until they release the hostages. weakness always induces the bully."

the brits with US backing should have given the iranians a public deadline with stated consequences to follow. if it meant killing the leadership of iran so be it.

we are in a death spiral with iran/radical islam and it is delusional at best that folks think time and patience will bail us out. everyday these terror monsters stay in power the higher the body count will ultimately be. as you stated

"We got our hostages back after 15 days.... Many of your commentators seem to think we should have gone to war (US and or UK) over this."

gone to war? we are at war with them already.

britain has basically rewarded bad behavior under the guise of having gotten their crews back alive. in some sense it is no different than the spanish and italians did prior.

Posted by TomB [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 6, 2007 8:52 AM

Tolkien,
Your points of reason are valid. In the meantime the terrorists has won.

Posted by Sapper [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 6, 2007 9:44 AM

I think that Sky News and other news agecies are screwing up this story and playing into the Iranian's hands.

http://sapper.townhall.com/g/fb1d552f-f84f-4dea-869c-276d8c70e788

Posted by docjim505 [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 6, 2007 11:42 AM

tolkein,

Thanks for providing us with a voice from Britain. I'm glad that you got the hostages back quickly and unharmed, but I really think that Britain is the loser in this situation. Iran doesn't give a snap for UN resolutions or causing liberals to suddenly realize (for the short term, anyway) that they are a rouge state.

If, however, the British people wake up and start demanding that their government put some muscle back into their armed forces so that they don't face this kind of humilation in the future, then that's about the only positive outcome I can see.

As for your remarks about the Cornwall's draft, I think it underscores the need not only for the RN but also the USN to have ships that can operate in "littoral waters". I know our Navy has been working on such designs, and I've been inclined to scoff at them in favor of more traditional blue water ships. However, this incident shows the wisdom of the Navy's plans, and I hope we get plenty of such ships in operation very soon.

Posted by Only_One_Cannoli [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 6, 2007 1:46 PM

Can't help wondering if Mahmoud and his pals benefited financially from this. I know very little about commodities trading but it's pretty clear that Iran created a 6% spike in crude oil prices by taking hostages. U.S. Navy ships helped but Iran would have expected some show of coalition force.

Even if Iran's original objective was to pressure Britain or score propaganda points it seems to me it wouldn't be hard for someone to turn a profit if they had advanced knowledge of Iran's intention to release the hostages. And crude oil prices started dropping from their hostage high a few days before Mahmoud announced his "gift" to Britain. Commodities short selling? Just wonderin'.

Posted by tolkein [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 6, 2007 5:19 PM

Dear docjm505

This may be the catalyst for the Navy to wake up and realise that the Cold war is over and we need new assets for new situations. More heavily armed gunboats and fewer destroyers are what is neede. And the new ROE are likely to see dead Iranians if they try to pull a stunt like that again.

Best wishes