May 16, 2007

Gallup On GOP Race: Already Outdated?

Gallup reports on a survey taken last week on the presidential primary races that shows Rudy Giuliani dipping down to his lowest level of the campaign, while John McCain seems to be rebounding a bit. Rudy took a nine-point hit over the past five weeks, while McCain went up seven:

The national front-runners for the 2008 presidential nominations continue to be former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani for the Republican Party and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Party. Giuliani's pro-choice views were openly vetted during the Republican debate held earlier this month at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California, and he has since tried to clarify them. It is not yet clear whether the resulting controversy has significantly harmed him among Republican voters. ...

Some of the changes in Giuliani's and McCain's support levels can be attributed to support for actor and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, since Gallup added him to the list of potential candidates in late March. However, Gallup's follow-up question, which asks Republican voters whom they would support if the race narrows down to Giuliani and McCain, does not have this complication.

The 2007 "narrow-down" trend shows Giuliani consistently well ahead of McCain, including in the latest poll, in which he leads by 10 points, 52% to 42%. This is Giuliani's slimmest lead on Gallup's head-to-head measure since January, when he led by only 8 points, but the changes in support for Giuliani and McCain that produced this gap are not statistically significant. Thus, it would be premature to say that the race has, indeed, tightened.

This seems to be the fruit of the first debate, held just a week before the start of this survey. Giuliani did poorly in that debate, trying to square the circle on abortion and not getting much to say. McCain didn't do badly but didn't exactly shine either. However, those who see the GOP primary in a binary, either/or for the two frontrunners appear to have shifted their support at least marginally to McCain.

Interestingly, even though Mitt Romney was seen to have won the debate by most observers, he didn't budge in the polls. Romney has tremendous organizational skills and excels in these debate formats, but neither seems to be engaging the electorate at all. He still only garners 8% of the base in poll after poll, which is starting to look like a hard ceiling rather than a ground floor. Either Romney has to find a way to break out -- and it looks like he's doing everything possible to do so -- or his donors will start looking for greener pastures.

Right now, the race looks like it will remain with Rudy and McCain, with room for a white knight -- either Fred Thompson or Newt Gingrich. Even with good performances in national debates, the second tier seems incapable of denting the momentum of the frontrunners. With Giuliani scoring big off of Ron Paul's looniness, he seems poised to regain some lost ground in the next round of polling -- probably at the expense of second tier candidates.

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Comments (7)

Posted by RBMN | May 16, 2007 10:21 AM

If I remember correctly, McCain was doing a lot of TV last week, along with that long interview on Meet the Press. One on one interviews are probably what McCain's does best.

Posted by Carol Herman | May 16, 2007 11:02 AM

I think the TV has distorted the nomination that occurs by ballotting, when the conventions are not scripted.

In the past, when you reached the convention, you'd begin to see American politics in action. Many a contendah went into the "tent" as a favorite son. And, many didn't last through the first two or three ballots.

You could learn this from the past. Because politics is the Art of the Compromise. And, inside that tent? Are the "workers" in party politics. Many of them the recipients of jobs, that they get to hold ONLY IF THEIR PARTY WINS. Creates a form of realism for ya.

The other advantage? Wanting to win the national competition. So, some of the dogs that hav gone up in the past have taught lessons, at least to your grandfathers.

FDR beat back for GOP competitors.

The first one: Hoover

The second one: Alf Landon

The third one: Wendell Wilkie

and the fourth one: John Dewey.

John Dewey lost to FDR in 1944. And, out in the wings was General Douglas MacArthur. But inside the GOP tent? They still favored John Dewey. Who ran and lost to Harry Truman's only run, in 1948.

There was such desperation within the GOP at the time 1952 came around, they "selected" Dwight D. Eisenhower. Who was, by the way, also being courted by the donks.

Ike made the choice that he'd be in a better position to "dictate" if he ran from the GOP side. As the democrats would have "tied his hands." And, he didn't want to be their puppet. (He probably also did not want to compete with FDR's great shadow.)

So, Ike ran as a real conservative. Got in. And, immediately GREW the presidency; with the addition of Housing, Education and Welfare. Stuff that was generally considered the pervue of States Rights. CHANGED THAT. Grew the government.

Heck, both Bush's played with the conservatives. Yet the government grew even larger.

That's how it goes.

Lots of promises before you get to take your bride to the alter.

While it's also good to remember, let's say; that going into the convention THIS TIME there will be a few candidates still vying for enough votes to get selected. (As it used to be. Before conventions got "scripted for TV.")

From history, it's good to remember that going into the FIRST Republican convention, back in 1860, Lincoln was in 4th place! He had three men ahead of him who held the votes. The first contendah didn't have "quite enough" to get over the top. And, in the balloting that followed, after Day One. After Lincoln's people went to work on the others, in their camps. What emerged in 1860 was the strongest desire by the GOP to WIN IN NOVEMBER. Well, that's not always the case.

And, 2008 is a very tough fight, now, for the GOP.

Not just in the presidency, but in the HOUSE, where you don't know what happens. And, in the senate. Where 24 GOP kiesters are defending, while only a dozen donks have to run again, for re-election. 36 people. But a 2-to-1 advantage for the donks.

There's an expression in politics "COATTAILS." Whose got 'em. And, who would be poison.

WHile national politics elects the winning president; the states and the locals pick their own guys. It makes for a healthy mix.

And, it also means that the future is hidden from view. No one knows what will emerge.

And, which party makes the biggest mistakes.

Heck, if the right thinks it can brazenly go about the GOP tent, when all the states are together; you haven't accounted for California. Ohio. Pennsylvania. And, New York.

In other words? What the right wants, and is used to demanding by insulting others; is to play to the weak hand. Lincoln knew that! And, he was a very ambitious man!

Posted by Carol Herman | May 16, 2007 11:05 AM

I think the TV has distorted the nomination that occurs by ballotting, when the conventions are not scripted.

In the past, when you reached the convention, you'd begin to see American politics in action. Many a contendah went into the "tent" as a favorite son. And, many didn't last through the first two or three ballots.

You could learn this from the past. Because politics is the Art of the Compromise. And, inside that tent? Are the "workers" in party politics. Many of them the recipients of jobs, that they get to hold ONLY IF THEIR PARTY WINS. Creates a form of realism for ya.

The other advantage? Wanting to win the national competition. So, some of the dogs that hav gone up in the past have taught lessons, at least to your grandfathers.

FDR beat back for GOP competitors.

The first one: Hoover

The second one: Alf Landon

The third one: Wendell Wilkie

and the fourth one: John Dewey.

John Dewey lost to FDR in 1944. And, out in the wings was General Douglas MacArthur. But inside the GOP tent? They still favored John Dewey. Who ran and lost to Harry Truman's only run, in 1948.

There was such desperation within the GOP at the time 1952 came around, they "selected" Dwight D. Eisenhower. Who was, by the way, also being courted by the donks.

Ike made the choice that he'd be in a better position to "dictate" if he ran from the GOP side. As the democrats would have "tied his hands." And, he didn't want to be their puppet. (He probably also did not want to compete with FDR's great shadow.)

So, Ike ran as a real conservative. Got in. And, immediately GREW the presidency; with the addition of Housing, Education and Welfare. Stuff that was generally considered the pervue of States Rights. CHANGED THAT. Grew the government.

Heck, both Bush's played with the conservatives. Yet the government grew even larger.

That's how it goes.

Lots of promises before you get to take your bride to the alter.

While it's also good to remember, let's say; that going into the convention THIS TIME there will be a few candidates still vying for enough votes to get selected. (As it used to be. Before conventions got "scripted for TV.")

From history, it's good to remember that going into the FIRST Republican convention, back in 1860, Lincoln was in 4th place! He had three men ahead of him who held the votes. The first contendah didn't have "quite enough" to get over the top. And, in the balloting that followed, after Day One. After Lincoln's people went to work on the others, in their camps. What emerged in 1860 was the strongest desire by the GOP to WIN IN NOVEMBER. Well, that's not always the case.

And, 2008 is a very tough fight, now, for the GOP.

Not just in the presidency, but in the HOUSE, where you don't know what happens. And, in the senate. Where 24 GOP kiesters are defending, while only a dozen donks have to run again, for re-election. 36 people. But a 2-to-1 advantage for the donks.

There's an expression in politics "COATTAILS." Whose got 'em. And, who would be poison.

WHile national politics elects the winning president; the states and the locals pick their own guys. It makes for a healthy mix.

And, it also means that the future is hidden from view. No one knows what will emerge.

And, which party makes the biggest mistakes.

Heck, if the right thinks it can brazenly go about the GOP tent, when all the states are together; you haven't accounted for California. Ohio. Pennsylvania. And, New York.

In other words? What the right wants, and is used to demanding by insulting others; is to play to the weak hand. Lincoln knew that! And, he was a very ambitious man!

Posted by james23 | May 16, 2007 11:14 AM

Surprising that Romney still isn't polling any better. He's not my choice, but he's had a ton of positive press; you'd expect to see better numbers from him by now.

I look for Rudy's numbers to improve, as the video of his skewering of Ron Paul makes the rounds. Like many voters, Rudy does not suffer fools gladly.

Posted by typekeyspams [TypeKey Profile Page] | May 16, 2007 7:15 PM

I want a GOP Congress. that will only come in a landslide that carries some Blue States. the only Republican who can carry some of the fight to those States is Rudy.

I also want to reform the Abortion decrees. Only Rudy will get an opportunity to appoint a conservative Originalist to a the Court. McCain even if he were to be elected, wouldn't have a GOP Senate for help.

JM says he is is pro-Life, but I don't trust the creator of the Gang of Fourteen, that killed the appointments of several conservative judges to the Appeals Courts. Any judge he appointed would be a compromise more like Souter than Thomas.

Posted by jaeger51 [TypeKey Profile Page] | May 16, 2007 11:00 PM

Our best shot is Fred Thompson with Gingrich for VP. Thompson has the right values, and also the vital media savvy to present himself well in the sound bite world of modern politics. Gingrich is the genius idea man....and will be able to talk circles around anyone the Dems put up for VP.

Posted by sestamibi | May 17, 2007 1:50 PM

Carol,

Of all people, you should know that it was Tom and not John Dewey, that Roosevelt and Truman beat.