Thompson Hits #1 With A Bullet
Rasmussen's latest polling shows that enthusiasm continues to build for a Fred Thompson candidacy. In fact, Fred pushed his way to the top of the poll, dislodging Rudy Giuliani from the top spot for the first time:
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson earning support from 28% of Likely Republican Primary Voters. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani attracts support from 27%. While Thompson’s one-point edge is statistically insignificant, it is the first time all year that anybody but Giuliani has been on top in Rasmussen Reports polling. A week ago, Thompson and Giuliani were tied at 24%.It remains an open question as to how Thompson will hold up once he actually enters the campaign and has to compete directly with other candidates. To date, he retains the allure of the new kid in town while GOP voters already know the things they don’t like about the others. Still, Thompson’s rise to the top provides a telling measure of how the other GOP hopefuls have failed to capture the imagination of the party they hope to lead.
Once gain this week, Arizona Senator John McCain and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney are tied for a distant third. This week, both men attract 10% support. Last week, they were both at the 11% level of support. For McCain, this is a continuation of a downward trend. For Romney, it reflects a fairly steady position. Romney is doing well in selected state polls but has been unable to gain much traction and expand his support nationwide.
Rasmussen has this as essentially a four-man race at this point, with two front-runners and two struggling to stay in the top tier. They eliminated Newt Gingrich from the polling this time, which undoubtedly helped Fred surpass Rudy, as most Newt voters want a solid conservative alternative with national pull. John McCain and Mitt Romney didn't get helped at all by that change, both losing slight ground instead and remaining tied for third place at a distance.
The second tier has all but faded from the scene. Combined, the rest of the field only gets 3%, under the margin of error for the whole poll. The only bright spot for Duncan Hunter, Mike Huckabee, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Jim Gilmore, and Ron Paul comes from the 18% who haven't made up their minds as yet -- although even if one of them got all 18%, it would onl make them third in this race.
Fred's advent will come as his popularity is cresting. The Rasmussen report wonders aloud whether he can keep the momentum as a candidate, but Fred has hardly cloistered himself for the last six months. He's been offering policy positions and debating from his vantage point as a pundit, engaging the media on his terms and delving deeply into the Internet for his support. Unless he stumbles, as Rudy did on abortion in April, he's certainly establishing himself as the popular conservative in the race -- and successfully, as Rasmussen has determined.
Posted by Ed Morrissey on June 19, 2007 10:18 AM | Comments (23) | TrackBacks (1)
Comments (23)
Posted by Spec Bowers | June 19, 2007 10:52 AM
Read lower in the poll:
"The Rasmussen Reports sample includes not only Republicans, but also independents who say they are likely to vote in a Republican Primary .... Among Republicans only in the current poll, it’s Thompson 29% Giuliani 24% Romney 11% and McCain 10%."
Posted by Stephens | June 19, 2007 11:20 AM
I'm concerned Fred Thompson is using too many Bush people in his committee. I read Chaney's daughter is working for him. I don't want a repeat of the Bush Admin.
Posted by Gull | June 19, 2007 11:27 AM
I agree, Stephens.
And I don't want a former lobbyist who has a lack-luster record as a senator running for President.
I'll sit this one out if Thompson ever declares to declare and is given the top slot on the basis of hearsay. Nice man, I'm sure -- but he's got too many unanswered questions about his lack of productivity.
Hillary n Bill will have him for lunch out of spite for his role in Clinton's inquiries ....
Posted by dougf | June 19, 2007 11:53 AM
I'll sit this one out
True believers crack me up. As if the latest polling results on the strength of Republican Party Identification are not warning enough that there are problems in River City, now there appear to those who will 'sit this one out' in a fit of pique.
Democrats/Republicans , Liberals/Conservatives ---- what's the difference nowdays ? Everyone seems to just want to take their ball and go home if the game is not played precisely to their liking with their preferred players.
Final results --- who cares about that important stuff ? I don't like that 3rd base guy, and if he plays I'm outahere.
Wonderful.
Posted by JEM | June 19, 2007 12:10 PM
Reagan's work habits attracted lots of negative commentary too. I'd much rather see a President who puts good people in top roles then sits back and lets them run their shops, but holds them accountable for their errors.
Lord Almighty, why do Chertoff and Gonzales still have jobs?
I certainly do not want a repeat of the Bush admin. I'd have much rather had Dick Cheney in the top seat. Bush is inarticulate, values loyalty over competence, and has gotten too much mileage with the 'GOP base' on his faith. I cannot listen to a Bush speech, even this morning's embarrassing little Fatah-ass-kiss media soundbite had me wincing in pain. This country is ready for a President who can get through a speech without running the 'uh' and 'um' and 'ah' count up into double-digits.
Thompson is a communicator, a man who has already done a better job with the tools available to him of enunciating clear positions than anyone else in the race. And he's lining up behind him a decent array of GOP warhorses who I consider to be honorable and trustworthy and who wouldn't put themselves in a position to be embarrassed. I don't agree with all his positions - I'm nominally pro-choice and lose no sleep over Roe v Wade - but I'm in near-100% agreement with him on what I think matters.
I could happily support Rudy or Mitt should they get the nomination, either one is certainly preferable to any of the Democrat contenders, but for now I'm in the Thompson camp.
Posted by james23 | June 19, 2007 12:27 PM
JEM said: "Thompson is a communicator, a man who has already done a better job with the tools available to him of enunciating clear positions than anyone else in the race."
I agree that we need a way better communicator than the incumbent, and I'm inclined to believe that all of the major candidates, of both parties, fit that description. Fred's written policy pronouncements have been very good, but his oral, on-air communication has been disappointing, and surprisingly so, to me.
Nevertheless, I'd be happy to support Fred if he is the nominee. Once he announces the heat will come and his numbers will sink some; that is always the way. But if he comes through it all on top, I'm sure he'd be way better than Hildebeast and better than Bush.
Posted by Bill Shiller | June 19, 2007 12:53 PM
I think we need to watch out with Thompson -- he's got negatives that people don't think enough about -- his thin record, etc. There's more interesting stuff at OppoDepot --
http://www.oppodepot.com/fred_thompson.html
I say this even though I like him personally.
Posted by tgharris | June 19, 2007 1:20 PM
Fred's short notice, one take video response to Michael Moore gives me great hope in his ability to "communicate".
I think it should be fun watching Fred and Rudy go at it. I also think Hillary might be on thin ice trying to "out-communicate" either one of them when the scrutiny of the general election campaign is on them.
Posted by Immolate | June 19, 2007 1:22 PM
"I'll sit this one out if Thompson ever declares to declare and is given the top slot on the basis of hearsay. Nice man, I'm sure -- but he's got too many unanswered questions about his lack of productivity. "
Gull... do you really think that Thompson will ever make a general election without having to answer just about every conceivable question that might discredit him, along with a few phony memos tossed in for good measure?
Posted by Robert Modean | June 19, 2007 1:46 PM
Gull doesn't really care. Gull is either a Ron Paul type true believer of a Moby. Either way trying to talk sensibly with them is useless.
Look, I like Fred, but until he comes out formally and announces his run for president I'm a Rudy man. Even when Fred does come out he's going to have to give me more than he has so far, I need a little more substance to abandon Rudy for Fred. Not that it's going to take much, certainly not after Fred's take dowd of Mike Moore and Harry Reid. Heck, if he gives me a couple of more scenes like that I'll be leading his cheering section. It's about time we had a candidate that wasn't afraid to call the Dems on what passes for "patriotism" on the left these days.
Posted by Bill Faith | June 19, 2007 2:04 PM
I'll vote for Rudy if it comes to that -- I'll even vote for McCain if I have to but I'm confident I won't -- but I think the only change we'll see once Fred announces and more people start learning more about him is that he's going to leave the rest of the pack, including Rudy, in the dust. I excerpted and linked.
Posted by syn | June 19, 2007 2:18 PM
I'll vote Rudy if I have too but in the end after all the RINOs ruining the party I will have a hard time supporting a social liberal/fiscal conservative; he might just turn out to be another member of the billionaire Collectivist club like his pals Bloomberg and Schwarzenegger. The fact is Social Liberal politicians cannot be Fiscally Conservative no matter how tough on terror they talk.
In other words, RINOs ruined Rudy's solid chance at the nomination.
Posted by courtneyme109 | June 19, 2007 3:19 PM
What I've seen down here in Hillbillyland is a sense from people that neither Fred or Rudy are selling anything. They are being themselves. In the last ten days more and more folks are coming out for Fred, especially after his last Leno appearance.
This election will be my FIRST and I can't wait, but the truth is if I listen to Rudy, McCain, Mitt or Fred I'm totally charmed by all of them. (though I have seen the footage from 2000 when the straight talk express got Bushwacked in SC and the senator became a really mean and kinda scary sore loser.)
Can we call it Fred's Surge?
Posted by molonlabe28 | June 19, 2007 4:15 PM
How much of the vote do you think Rudy's campaign would pick up if (and more likely, when) McCain, Romney and the tertiary candidates collapse?
I think that those votes would (or will) break heavily toward Fred and that it's not a close call.
Posted by Gull | June 19, 2007 4:44 PM
Immolate asks: "Gull... do you really think that Thompson will ever make a general election without having to answer just about every conceivable question that might discredit him, along with a few phony memos tossed in for good measure?"
He seems to be on track to avoid questions and decisions, Immolate. Not a good trait for one aspiring to be POTUS. The dems would LOVE to see him enter as #1 without his having walked thru hot coals as other candidates are currently doing.
And to another commenter: I'm more concerned about the team CAPTAIN than I am about who is on third base ....
Robert Modean assumes (wrongly): "Gull doesn't really care. Gull is either a Ron Paul type true believer of a Moby. Either way trying to talk sensibly with them is useless."
Why not make the effort to check out my blog before assuming that I don't care? I care about many things -- currently it's the shamnesty we face in the senate, but tops on my list is also electing a competent, intelligent person who can lift this nation far above the mudane, Modean.
FWIW, I've supported Mitt Romney for months.
Posted by Project Vote Smart | June 19, 2007 5:19 PM
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Posted by windybon | June 19, 2007 5:30 PM
I'm a Fred supporter, but if he doesn't win the nomination, I'll vote for whoever is the Republican candidate. I refuse to sit back and let the dems win without a fight.
Posted by windybon | June 19, 2007 5:32 PM
I'm a Fred supporter, but if he doesn't win the nomination, I'll vote for whoever is the Republican candidate. I refuse to sit back and let the dems win without a fight.
Posted by Patricia | June 19, 2007 10:18 PM
Those who love Fred Thompson had better listen up.
Fred Thompson may be the darling of conservatives, but he cannot WIN the Presidential election against Hillary or probably any Democrat.
Thompson looks like the kindly old feller who sits on the back porch carving. His words of wisdom drop like pearls from his mouth, but you wouldn't want to be next to him in a fire-fight.
Want to lose? Nominate Fred. Nothing against the man, except he couldn't win in a general election.
Posted by Scott Malensek | June 20, 2007 6:34 AM
Where is Thompson in regards to
Thompson vs Hillary
Thompson vs Obama
?
Posted by ERNurse | June 20, 2007 11:09 AM
Gull, as a former Republican (now Independent), I vented the full measure of my wrath against the Republican Party last November...
By VOTING.
As mad as I was, I was not going to be stupid enough to sit out the dance. And 2008 is going to be the biggest dance ever.
If you want to be a wallflower, go for it. But if you want to hit the GOP and/or DNC where it really hurts them, hit them with your VOTE and with your CHECKBOOK. That means simply take your vote and your money elsewhere. The Pubs and Donks are too stupid to understand any other language.
If Fred runs, he'll kick Rudy's sissy ass.
Posted by Rose | June 20, 2007 8:35 PM
The same Fred Thompson who heartily prosecuted the Watergate Hearings, but [wink wink] glad-handed Bill Clinton during his impeachment, and last week called his perjury TOO TRIVIAL A MATTER to rise to the level of impeachment "IN OUR FOUNDING FATHERS' EYES" ?????????????
Even though the perjury was committed during a deposition taken on LIVE INTERNATIONAL TV??????????
Great shades of NIFONG!
Not in this lifetime.
I'll do a write-in, just like I did when Robert Dole was running.
----------------------
What I've seen down here in Hillbillyland is a sense from people that neither Fred or Rudy are selling anything. They are being themselves. In the last ten days more and more folks are coming out for Fred, especially after his last Leno appearance.
*****************
And then Fred takes off to England "TO GET THE ENDORSEMENT OF MARGARET THATCHER"????????????
Why should she endorse HIM??? Is there some previous relationship there that she should know him well enough to justify her tacking HER reputation on HIS star to endorse HIM????
That looks really flamboyant and bombastic, to me, for him to do this.
Posted by Rose | June 20, 2007 8:47 PM
Where is Thompson in regards to
Thompson vs Hillary
Thompson vs Obama
**********************
I don't know about Thompson vs Obama - but Thompson vs Hillary???
Well, that would be interesting - Bill Clinton Enabler vs Bill Clinton Enabler....
I think that vote would go to the PARTY of Bill Clinton Enablers.
Which party is THAT, you ask?
EXCELLENT QUESTION!