Losing Momentum?
The presidential campaigns have a deadline approaching for announcing their second-quarter fundraising numbers, and they have already begun jockeying to manage expectations. Hillary Clinton surprised pundits by announcing a firm number early -- $27 million -- and then telling everyone they could that they expected Barack Obama to do better than that. Now Mitt Romney's campaign has started to get the word out that fundraising efforts had dropped off from their impressive Q1 totals:
Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who led Republican candidates in money raised during the first three months of the presidential race with $21 million, told top fundraisers yesterday that his campaign will bring in less during the second quarter and that he continues to lend money from his personal fortune to ensure that more voters hear his message."This tells only part of the story given this cycle's unprecedented nature, and the competing needs of less well-known candidates, such as Governor Romney, for both fundraising dollars and political exposure," said the memo to fundraisers from senior campaign adviser Alex Castellanos and top lawyers Benjamin Ginsberg and Katie Biber Chen.
"Our total will reflect the campaign's strategic decision to include more political travel days in this quarter than in the first," they explained, noting that Romney spent a total of 20 days in the early primary states of New Hampshire and Iowa between April and June, double the time he spent there in the first three months of 2007.
This doesn't bode well for the Romney campaign. He made a seven-figure loan to the campaign last week to keep up with the other candidates, which sounds as though fundraising has seriously flagged in this quarter. Romney has done well in Iowa and New Hampshire in gaining some momentum, but a significant drop in fundraising may signal to voters that Romney has peaked already.
The other GOP candidates, meanwhile, appear poised to show more consistent performance, if not breakout numbers. According to the Post, Giuliani has turned in a strong Q2. In Q1, he raised $17 million, but most of that was in the final two months. With three months of steady fundraising, Giuliani could top that number. John McCain, despite having a tough Q2 with immigration, still expects to get close to or beat his previous $13 million. Romney can run well under his $23 million and still beat them, but the perception will not be that of victory.
And Republicans should feel concerned about the disparity between their candidates' fundraising and that of the Democrats. Hillary and Obama will have somewhere between $55-60 million just between them, and that could outdo all three GOP frontrunners combined. In terms of primary efforts, the money difference won't create problems for Republicans, since primaries are mostly closed systems. However, if that fundraising disparity continues into the general election, the GOP may be in serious trouble regardless of the candidates involved.
Romney's strength in the campaign thus far has been his organizational skills, which his national poll numbers have not reflected. Many expected that his support would begin to reflect the organization. If his numbers fall too low, many might think that the reverse has happened.
Posted by Ed Morrissey on June 30, 2007 8:20 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBacks (0)
Comments (8)
Posted by onlineanalyst | June 30, 2007 8:50 AM
I suggest that Hillary and Obama dedicate half of their campaign-fundraising coffers to address the price tag of their socialist program pipe dreams instead of gouging the American taxpayer.
Posted by Mell | June 30, 2007 9:16 AM
Maybe the conservatives are holding on to their billfolds waiting for Thompson.
Posted by Noel | June 30, 2007 9:19 AM
The money follows the mojo. And the mojo is with Fred.
Posted by firedup | June 30, 2007 9:40 AM
And Bloomberg has more money than all other candidates -- D and R -- combined.
Posted by Angry Dumbo | June 30, 2007 11:31 AM
I support Mitt. By golly, I do. I don't like Rudi, and Fred is too New.
The Republican candidate should be the one who can best exploit the media's BDS. The battle lines are the established media outlets versus new media. The old media "hates" Romney (pulling up a 20 year old story about Romney's placement of his dog in a car carrier smacks of Bush's DUI or national guard stories - FMO - for moonbats only). I believe that Mitt can best discredit the establishment media's attacks on him. Pardon the pun, but they can't lay a glove on Mitt.
In the end, I prefer Mitt's dog to Fred's lobbying and Rudi's cross-dressing.
Posted by Monkei | June 30, 2007 2:30 PM
The old media "hates" Romney (pulling up a 20 year old story about Romney's placement of his dog in a car carrier smacks of Bush's DUI or national guard stories - FMO - for moonbats only).
These old national guard stories have been replaced by thew new amost impossible to believe story that 41% of Americans STILL think Saddam had something to do with 911! I guess it's just another one of those stories that if you repeat it enough people will eventually believe it.
Ah fear ... the great equalizer.
Posted by Jim,MtnViewCA,USa | June 30, 2007 10:11 PM
I'm one person who stopped sending money to Republicans due to illegal immigration. I bet I'm not the only one.
Sure, the Dems are stupid and evil. But I'd sure like a pro-American political party to support....
Posted by Adjoran | July 1, 2007 2:47 AM
Immigration is only the latest possible reason for Republicans lagging in fundraising. The lackluster performance of the GOP Congress in the last two terms of its reign undoubtedly disaffected many potential and past donors, as well as the general perception of dissatisfaction with Bush also, and the performance of Republicans in both branches.
Hillary has the huge advantage of the Clinton money machine, which was built and nurtured over the years of her husband's Administration. Obama is benefiting from the desire of Democrats for a fresh face with the potential to win. It appears the contest will come down to those two on the Democratic side, and they will be forced to expend all or most of those funds in attempting to win. They will also have to play rougher as the actual voting approaches.
If Romney comes in the top two in the GOP, he'll be okay for at least another quarter. If his 2nd Q number is beaten by McCain, though, he will be in big trouble. All three current GOP leaders will be under tremendous pressure when Thompson enters the race, and on our side of the aisle the 3rd quarter may be the determinant one.
Edwards is relying on Ann Coulter reaction from the Nutroots to reach his meager $9 million goal for the quarter, and he may not make that. As with McCain, his trailing numbers may indicate he has called in all his chits already and without some surging performances in polls and debates, both will be faced with presenting a perception of also-rans, never a good sign for political campaigns.