McCain's Not Quitting
It's become fashionable to write obituaries for John McCain's presidential campaign, and the recent housecleaning at the Straight Talk Express has convinced many that McCain will end his bid sooner rather than later. Chris Cillizza at The Fix reports that John McCain is not among those so convinced. The Senator has met with staffers to draw comparisons between the status of his campaign and that of another Republican, who went on to some degree of success. Chris reviews two memos making the rounds:
The first document seeks to draw parallels between Ronald Reagan's 1980 presidential bid and the current state of McCain's operation. "During the summer of 1979, Ronald Reagan's campaign reported that it was broke," begins the memo. "The candidate had to explain his weak fundraising and big spending, as well as overcome doubts about his age and ability." After firing much of his top campaign staff just before the New Hampshire primary, he went on to win that ballot, the GOP nomination and the presidency. "Ultimately when Ronald Reagan took control of his own campaign, he started to see successes," the document reads. ...The second memo is far longer and more detailed -- seeking to explain McCain's potential path to the Republican nomination.
"The 2008 primary election is dramatically front-loaded," it reads. "We believe that puts more pressure on candidates to win early primary states than ever before.["]
Essentially, the strategy comes down to better fiscal management and a surprise win or two before the first Super Tuesday. Much the same as Mitt Romney does, McCain believes that a big win in Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina will give him both credibility and momentum going into the massive February 5th primaries. That could work, especially for Republicans, who usually work hard to close ranks early in the primary season.
However, it will take some doing for McCain. He has to retool his campaign to end the bleeding. They have raised a very respectable $24 million so far this year, but had to spend $22 million doing it. That's why McCain streamlined the operation this month, trying to hold down costs and slim operations that didn't give commensurate value. His fundraising numbers in Q3 will be critical to his credibility. If he can turn that around, then the comparison to Reagan may hold some water.
In order to get there, he needs to focus on his strengths. That means national security, the war on terror, and his personal story. McCain and his team need to get their man closer to the people and farther away from the ivory tower. People respond to McCain when they meet or talk with him in a manner they do not when they only see him on television. If he's going to regain his mojo, that's how it'll happen. Don't expect McCain to quit any time soon, in any case.
I'll be interviewing Senator McCain on today's CQ Radio show, at the special time of 2 pm ET/1 pm CT. Be sure to catch it live!
Posted by Ed Morrissey on July 19, 2007 10:20 AM | Comments (23) | TrackBacks (0)
Comments (23)
Posted by Lew | July 19, 2007 10:57 AM
In politics and more specifically in campaigns, it all comes down to who you really are as an individual, and Senator McCain is a living example of why Americans so very seldom elect sitting legislators to the White House. We already know who he is and as a consequence, his campaign is forced to waste a vast amount of time and energy and money to overcome and redefine the image we already have. Its all damage control!
In 1979, by contrast, Reagan had the advantage of being free to concentrate on simply getting himself out front and in direct contact. He didn't have to waste resources redefining anything, but instead had the luxury of simply revealing who he was. A much easier task.
Posted by Derek | July 19, 2007 11:46 AM
It's impossible for a campaign like his to implode sixth months before the first primary. The media just likes to overplay the shakeups.
Posted by sherlock | July 19, 2007 12:04 PM
McCain raises issues like the old "sacrifice liberties for safety" debate. Should vote for an erratic loose cannon (in temprament and on conservative issues) just because he is the only one speaking out forcefully on national defense?
Hint to to other (R) candidates, there are 3 priorities most sane voters have:
1. Security
2. Security
3. Security
MSM wants you to believe income disparity, etc. is a biggie. Sane voters (the majority) know better.
Posted by Thomas Jackson | July 19, 2007 1:08 PM
McCain is an unattractive candidate. He is a known bully who berates fellow Republican senators and pushes his aides around. His attitude toward the base is well known and heaven help those who don't share his view of the world. So should he garner as much as Ron Paul we are asked to believe he would be the new Ronald Reagan?
Whatever his virtues may be it is clear that they are not the kind that would serve best in a national leadership role. His reputation has been earned the hard way, now let him live it down.
Posted by Rose | July 19, 2007 1:26 PM
Sad commentary on McCain that he is unable to perceive the structural and significant, drastic differences between himself and Ronald Reagan.
Ronald Reagan was a man of unique and strong wonderful character, and McCain isn't even in the same stratosphere.
The campaign that McCain resembles is more likely that of Hanoi John - overflowing with self-importance and egotism.
The people loved Reagan when they heard him talk.
Some people have loved about two of McCain's speeches, speeches which are not reflected in his CONDUCT in Congress.
No telling who wrote them for him.
This is a sad case of Jabba the Hut wishing he was Hans Solo, or Clark Gable.
Posted by Rose | July 19, 2007 1:31 PM
Whatever his virtues may be it is clear that they are not the kind that would serve best in a national leadership role. His reputation has been earned the hard way, now let him live it down.
Posted by: Thomas Jackson at July 19, 2007 1:08 PM
****************
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA-
MEN!!!
Posted by Tom | July 19, 2007 1:47 PM
Hint to to other (R) candidates, there are 3 priorities most sane voters have:
1. Security
2. Security
3. Security
MSM wants you to believe income disparity, etc. is a biggie. Sane voters (the majority) know better.
Posted by: sherlock
Beg to differ, but no - you're wrong. Most sane voters want much more than the simple pollyanna view you espouse. Security is the repub 'war cry' that the MSM has been deluded into thinking "talking security is having security". They are different altogether. In a war costing $12 billion a month, most sane voters want to know where all their money is going, and why does the current administration seem to think it is a monarchy. Sane voters worry about health care of their own retirement. Sane voters have a myriad of wants and wishes that pushes your lone security requirement is quite far down the line. Security, of course - but we have that. Our brave soldiers need the security (armoured vehicles, more rest, etc...) its funny we don't seem to talk about the soldiers much around here, do we? Hmmm, maybe Captains Quarters is a little embarrassed about supporting the current squatter living in our WH. Could it be?
Posted by Fearless Bear | July 19, 2007 2:08 PM
John McCain embodies the kind of leadership we need to get America through the identity crisis it currently is facing. He has taken principled positions, and knows how to fight bad guys. His problem and ours is that the electorate has been serenaded by leftist pipe dreams and trash talk to the point that the reality is blurred and the flesh is increasingly weak.
Posted by richard mcenroe | July 19, 2007 2:56 PM
The Keating Five
McCain-Feingold
Arthur Andersen
McCain-Kennedy
IS his personal story.r
Posted by M. Simon | July 19, 2007 3:06 PM
McCain is not my first choice.
He is not my second choice.
He is not even my third choice.
If he is nominated I'll vote for him. I remember 2006.
I voted straight ticket (for the first time in my life - I'm 62) in that election. Evidently a lot of Republicans did not.
Posted by Jim | July 19, 2007 3:53 PM
Fearless says: "John McCain embodies the kind of leadership we need to get America through the identity crisis it currently is facing. He has taken principled positions, and knows how to fight bad guys. His problem and ours is that the electorate has been serenaded by leftist pipe dreams and trash talk to the point that the reality is blurred and the flesh is increasingly weak."
Oh, no - you are sadly mistaken my friend. It is not the serenade of leftist pipe dreams, nor it is it 'trash talk' which has doomed McCain's chances at the nomination. No sir, Mr. McCain has brought his problems upon himself.
Forget about issues such as his apparent arrogant ego, his age, his (seemingly on the surface) instable temperament and temper. As mentioned above, McCain Feingold, the Gang of 14, the Shamnesty Deal......those sorts of things are what is really doing him in, more than anything. You know, you can only spit in the face of your base so many times before they decide to look at other potential candidates to lead their party.
Posted by PRE | July 19, 2007 4:03 PM
You can take issue with McCain's position on Immigration or campaign finance, but I think it is laughable and mean to take issue with the man's integrity. THAT is where there is the parrallel with Reagan, he does what he believes to be right and damn the consequences. In my mind, that is McCain's saving grace - at least you know that you can believe that what he says is what he does. He doesn't act from calculated poll-tested positions, rather from his sense of right and of principle.
When McCain was in the Hanoi Hilton he was offered a chance to leave because of his status as an officer and his lineage. He refused to abandon his fellow soldiers to a fate that he was unwilling to face. That tells you all you need to know about John McCain.
Or perhaps you'd rather be pandered to (i.e. lied to) by Romney or Guiliani whose public positions have rotated 180 degrees from what they've said in the past.
Until Fred Thompson gets into this race, or Ron Paul changes his position on Iraq, I see no great alternatives in the primary. Lacking a candidate I agree with 100% of the time, I will go with one with the character and integrity of John McCain. If others cannot support him, I would at least suggest that you respect his service, his sacrifice and his love of country enough to show a little more decorum.
Posted by SoldiersMom | July 19, 2007 4:27 PM
McCain has proven himself to be a Patriot and a Statesman. I didn't agree with him on alot of issues, but I respect him for taking a position and standing by it, damn the consequences. Loved his speech at the pajama party the other night (thanks CE for posting it).
My thoughts exactly M.Simon:
"McCain is not my first choice.
He is not my second choice.
He is not even my third choice.
If he is nominated I'll vote for him. I remember 2006."
Posted by richard mcenroe | July 19, 2007 9:27 PM
The problem is, even when McCain does something I approve of, I can't be sure WHY he's doing it. I think he's taken a lot of these positions because he sees John McCain governing and not because of his interest the political process. Look how often he's been the counterproductive lone wolf, as with the Gang of Fourteen judicial ploy. His erratic and confrontational behavior when challenged on his positions, and I really hate to say this, believe what you will, reminds me of Nixon.
Posted by jaeger51 | July 19, 2007 9:59 PM
Hopefully it won't be McCain, but better McCain than ANY Democrat.
Posted by Rose | July 19, 2007 11:00 PM
Posted by: Fearless Bear at July 19, 2007 2:08 PM
***************
That would sound terrific if McCain hadn't already established that HE is the salvation and embodiment of hte power of the DIMS.
I seriously wonder if there would BE A NATIONAL Dim POLITICAL PARTY anymore without his McCain Feingold and Gang of 14, and when they looked like fools over Abu Ghraib and Gitmo, HE CHIMED IN with all the weight he could lend THEIR VIEW.
McCain is the Leftist empowerment.
Posted by PRE | July 19, 2007 11:15 PM
Considering that McCain has some personal knowledge of torture, perhaps one could see how he might take the position that he does on potential US abuse of prisoners.
You might also want to think about the fact that if the GOP had wiped out the fillibuster during the Gang of 14 imbroglio that we wouldn't have been able to stop the Dems from voting on Levin-Reed earlier this week.
Posted by Rose | July 19, 2007 11:46 PM
I live in Southwest Texas a few hours from the border, where we are heavily impacted by Dim Leftist Socialism, barely north of the Reconquistas - in a multitude of ways - mostly all vehemently supported by McCain.
I am not personally acquainted with a single person who is going to vote for McCain, even if he is the GOP nominee.
Neither am I.
I heartily recommend that those of you who fear the Dims, yet vote for one of their staunchest enablers - if you really want a united GOP against the Dims, then drop shoving these RINOS at us, and spend the time searching for someone THAT WILL CONSOLIDATE the base, and not alienate half of them, hoping to drain a few DIMS in your support.
Let me remind you - Reagan got a lot of crossover Dims- BUT HE RETAINED HIS ENTIRE CONSERVATIVE BASE in the process.
With McCain, Rudi, Mitt, and Fred, most of your base WILL NOT VOTE GOP, many will vote for a write-in or 3rd party - and NOT stay home, as the GOP "moderates" seem to hope we will do.
You are all fully aware of the viseral disgust we have with the likes of Mc Cain - you delude yourself with Leftist MSM fantasies of his so-called "electability" - and you do so to your own peril - as we do NOT see any chance that "rescuing" you guys from the Dims will help save America by ONE SINGLE SOLITARY SHRED.
So as you leave AMERICA twisting in the wind to support these RINOS, we too will also leave YOU MODERATES twisting in the wind - and there won't be a WHIT of difference to spit between, to America, in the long run.
You simply do it deliberately, willfully, without our "sanction".
Posted by Rose | July 20, 2007 12:02 AM
Considering that McCain has some personal knowledge of torture, perhaps one could see how he might take the position that he does on potential US abuse of prisoners.
You might also want to think about the fact that if the GOP had wiped out the fillibuster during the Gang of 14 imbroglio that we wouldn't have been able to stop the Dems from voting on Levin-Reed earlier this week.
Posted by: PRE at July 19, 2007 11:15 PM
**********************
Some folks are mighty interested in fostering fairy tales about McCain's military history, or at least what it says about his character.
I personally don't find that Mc Cain's reputation fr om that time period squares with his conduct - and I am too old to believe he has changed so severely, since that time - I've read other bios of POWS decades before I ever heard of McCain or Hanoi John - who are way too close friends. McCain just doesn't add up.
And his tactics always enable a CRIPPLED Dim party agenda.
So they had to sacrifice a few appointments - that wasn't the big deal for them - only a part.
Even worse, they always come when he is FURIOUS at the GOP - like McCain Feingold - HIS MAIN FOCUS WAS TO STEAL THE MOMENTUM that George Bush had for an AGENDA the VOTERS APPROVED.
But he was still SEETHING over his loss of the candidacy, much less the SEAT of OFFICE.
IT WAS NEVER HIS TO LOSE - IT IS NOT HIS TO LOSE NOW.
Posted by PRE | July 20, 2007 8:42 AM
Rose: I get it, you hate McCain. I can respect that. Personally I do like the guy and think that he is the only consistent pro-life, pro-gun, anti-spending conservative in the top tier of the race. I happened to think that the amnesty bill tried to do some important things, most importantly trying to bring these illiegal immigrants into the mainstream of our society instead of allowing them to build an nation within a nation. There may be many who think that we should just deport them all, but I submit that is neither practical nor would it be beneficial. And, yes, I live in Texas too so I understand how immigrants affect our nation.
Anyhow, my real question for you is this: You don't seem to like any of the GOP candidates for President. Who do you think is the true conservative in this race? Is it anyone at all who has a legitimate shot at the nomination? I started this primary season as a Brownback fan, but he has no chance at all. Huckabee has an only slightly better chance and I could definitely support him. Who is it that you would suggest we should nominate?
Thank you for implying - for the first time in my life - that I'm a moderate. I know a lot of people who would have a belly laugh over that. You might do well to remember another thing that RR did and that was remind us to speak no ill of our fellow Republicans.
Posted by harleycon5 | July 20, 2007 8:40 PM
Senator John McCain's only hope is to "throw himself to the mercy of the court (the American people)" and admit he was totally wrong on illegal immigration and his support of Amnesty.
This will be a hard pill to swallow for a man like Senator McCain, who dislikes ever admitting his stance on anything is wrong, but it is his ONLY hope.
Should he give a speech admitting that he has "heard the American people" and that he will now define his efforts as one of "Border security above all else", he has a chance.
But ONLY if he does so.
The base does not trust him, and you need the base to win in the primaries. Right now he is sliding in both financing and support. With Fred Thompson just inches away from announcing, he doesn't have much time left.
I don't think he will do it, but he has my advice, for what it is worth.
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