Huckabee A Threat To Fred?
The Wall Street Journal takes a look at Mike Huckabee's surprisingly strong performance in Iowa and wonders whether conservatives might take a second look at the governor of Arkansas. Unlike Mitt Romney and Sam Brownback, Huckabee didn't bring busloads of supporters to Ames, nor did he spend vast amounts of money on the straw poll. Yet he managed to beat Brownback and steal Romney's thunder on the basis of a live performace of "Free Bird" and a large dose of conservative stumping:
The biggest winner of Iowa Republicans' weekend straw poll of 11 presidential rivals may well turn out to be not Mitt Romney, whose first-place finish here was expected, but surprise runner-up Mike Huckabee, the guitar-picking former governor of Arkansas.Should Mr. Huckabee capitalize on his second-place showing here Saturday to get a second look from demoralized Republicans unhappy with their choices -- and to get much-needed funding -- the repercussions could reshuffle the party's contest for its 2008 nomination. Social conservatives, who have come to dominate the Republican party, could decide the candidate they have been looking for has been in the race the whole time, languishing at the back of the pack with little money to promote himself.
That wouldn't be good news for Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, who likewise has struggled to be that candidate, or for actor and former senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee. Mr. Thompson's still-undeclared candidacy has been propelled by the argument that he could fill the perceived void of a true conservative, and a Southerner, among the field's front-runners of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Arizona Sen. John McCain and Mr. Romney, the former socially liberal Massachusetts governor now running as a social conservative. But Mr. Thompson has delayed entering the race, to some supporters' chagrin, and didn't compete in Saturday's straw poll.
I think this may be a little premature, but it underscores the momentum that Huckabee will likely get from his surprise showing at Ames. Up to now, he's led the second tier, but that hasn't given him much help. He has only made national headlines at the debates, and few have followed the day-to-day campaigning Huckabee does in comparison to Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Romney, or even non-candidate Fred Thompson.
If that momentum comes from anywhere, it may come from Fred. The former Tennessee Senator has been buoyed by conservative dissatisfaction with the current crop of front-runners. Many do not trust McCain because of the BCRA, the Gang of 14, and his initial opposition to some of the Bush tax cuts -- but mostly because of two tries for comprehensive immigration reform that infuriated the GOP base. Rudy's support for abortion rights has the base aghast that the GOP may nominate the first pro-choice Republican for President, and Romney's past positions on abortion has left others mistrustful of his current positions.
Can Huckabee steal some thunder from Fred before the latter's entry into the race, now set for September 5th? It's still an uphill battle. Fred has a certain amount of celebrity that will always give him a media advantage. Huckabee had to find some way to get the media interested in him, and the Ames poll will do that -- for a brief period. He's got a small window in which to make himself part of the national narrative. If he can do that, he may find conservatives willing to listen to his pitch for the presidency -- and this could be a very different race.
Posted by Ed Morrissey on August 13, 2007 7:07 AM | Comments (21) | TrackBacks (2)
Comments (21)
Posted by ted in bed | August 13, 2007 7:53 AM
I was a fredhead but now am a Mike guy. I looked at his position on the right to keep and bear arms and it is perfect. Fred will have a hard time topping that.
I do worry about Mike's border policy. Supposedly, he was an open borders guy when he was governor but his web site doesn' t reflect that.
Posted by Kate | August 13, 2007 7:59 AM
From reading various sources such as American Spectator, it appears that Mike owes his 2nd place finish more to the Fair Tax folks than anything else. Once conservatives look at his fiscal policies while governor they'll run to Thompson so fast it will make your head spin
Posted by Monkei | August 13, 2007 8:02 AM
Mike is a great choice and might be one of the candidates who could actually win the whitehouse if he won the nomination.
Posted by Patrick T. McGuire | August 13, 2007 8:06 AM
Although I voted for Huckabee in his last term as Governor, I am glad to see him gone. His fiscal record is far from conservative and he lost a lot of conservatives in Arkansas for strongly criticizing the Feds for raiding a poultry plant to round up illegals. I believe he actually called for the Feds to release the illegals that they caught.
The only reason that Huckabee is getting any traction is that nobody has paid any serious attention to his record. Once that comes out, which it should very soon, he will be joining Tommy Thompson on the sidelines.
Posted by athingortwo | August 13, 2007 8:20 AM
There is no momentum to be gained from the irrelevant IA straw poll, period.
Nobody outside of Iowa cares the least bit about what the results were. Even Iowans gave it a big ho hum reception, inasmuch as only a small fraction of the 1999 turnout was ginned up in IA this past weekend. None of the first tier candidates bothered to show up (a single digit guy like Romney is not a first tier candidate).
The number of votes "won" by Huckabee, or even the number accorded to the "winner" Romney, don't even exceed the number of students in the average urban high school.
Posted by SWLiP | August 13, 2007 8:49 AM
Sorry, but I just couldn't vote for a guy named "Huckabee"?
Posted by rightwingprof | August 13, 2007 9:48 AM
When Huckabee's tax raises and nanny statism come out, much of the popularity will disappear. I see little difference between Huckabee and Bloomberg, save the ego.
Posted by gianni | August 13, 2007 9:59 AM
Huckabee may not of bussed anyone in, but someone did. I saw a lot of people getting off buses supporting Huckabee. I think it may have been the Fairtax buses.
Posted by Faith+1 | August 13, 2007 11:15 AM
Sorry. Hard to get excited about Mitt or Huckabee in a poll that left out the top 3 or 4 candidates. It's like acting surprised that Huckabee came in 6th place. Maybe it's better than he was before but it is still far off the pace.
In the completely unofficial straw poll of 20 individuals in my office only one had heard of Mitt because he is visiting from the Boston office and no one had heard of Huckabee. Age range for this 20 person sample was a young of 22 and a peak of 68 about evenly spread between party affiliation.
2 people thought I was making the name "Huckabee" up.
Posted by Dean Esmay | August 13, 2007 12:01 PM
Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford were both pro-choice on abortion, although Nixon never had to take a strong public stance on it that I recall.
Posted by Jason | August 13, 2007 12:25 PM
To those complaining about Huckabee's fiscal record, please maintain some perspective, including the fact that Huckabee was working with an overwhelmingly Democratic state legislature and had been ordered to do some things re: education by the state Supreme Court.
Also, what more could we ask for than a candidate wholly supportive and an articulate defender of the Fair Tax?
Huckabee is right on the issues, is a great communicator, and he has great character.
Posted by Tracy McAfee | August 13, 2007 1:01 PM
There was only 1 FairTax bus and no Iowa voters were bussed in on that bus.
It was obscene how Romey spent his money. My 17 year old wondered if he would spend like that if he became president! Out of the mouths of babes!
Posted by Tracy McAfee | August 13, 2007 1:03 PM
There was only 1 FairTax bus and no Iowa voters were bussed in on that bus.
It was obscene how Romney spent his money. My 17 year old wondered if he would spend like that if he became president! Out of the mouths of babes!
Posted by Tracy McAfee | August 13, 2007 1:32 PM
There was only 1 FairTax bus and no Iowa voters were bussed in on that bus.
It was obscene how Romney spent his money. My 17 year old wondered if he would spend like that if he became president! Out of the mouths of babes!
Posted by Iowa Dan | August 13, 2007 3:19 PM
The straw poll was miserably hot this year, and the fact that alleged front-runners failed to show probably cut into the attendance, too, but only a fool would argue that Huckabee won't get an enormous bump from this:
He already has. It is hard to put my finger on it: Huckabee is nowhere on television, an afterthough in the printed press, and pops up on the radio only occassionally, but the followers of his that I've met are not the wild-eyed, insistent sort (like maybe Perot's more vocal early adopters, and certainly not like Ron Paul's!), but simple, salt-of-the earth folks with a quiet determination.
Huckabee is excellent one-on-one (all Iowans have, by this time, had at least one face-to-face conversation with at least one candidate - Huckabee and Chris Dodd have been mine), gifted in front of a crowd, and quite relaxed before a camera. He's got no gimmick, and really no quirks, but I think, even for his seemingly consistent stance, he does have something of a cross-party appeal. I can see about 25-30% of Democrats being "okay" with Huckabee. He's not a political "legacy" - he comes from the Clintons' state - he works well with others and lacks bombast.
I thought he had no chance to garner 18% and finish second yesterday, yet Huckabee's name kept coming up over and over again before the Straw Poll.
On the ground, it is really obvious that the guy has momentum. I'm not on board - I'm a registered Indecisive - but I do think he may have muscled his way into Tier 1 Saturday. Not that that means much: plenty of Tier 1 guys are in jeopardy of having to quit.
Posted by Faith+1 | August 13, 2007 4:07 PM
Have to disagree Iowa Dan. A poll without McCain, Rudy and Thompson in it is a poll for a distant fourth place and Huckabee only managed to come in second at that. Does he get a bump? Sure, from 8th place to 6th. This far out of the election that is neither exciting or newsworthy.
Posted by Goldwater | August 13, 2007 9:29 PM
Huckabee did have supporters bused in.
They were on the Fair Tax buses -- an in kind contribution to be sure.
Brownback had about as many buses as Romney and Tommy Thompson had 75 busloads of supporters.
It wasn't the buses that got folks the votes or Tommy Thompson would have come in third behind Brownback's second.
Posted by gianni | August 13, 2007 10:12 PM
There was only 1 FairTax bus and no Iowa voters were bussed in on that bus.
It was obscene how Romney spent his money. My 17 year old wondered if he would spend like that if he became president! Out of the mouths of babes!
Posted by: Tracy McAfee at August 13, 2007 1:32 PM
I don't know, I just know i saw Huckabee fans getting off at least one bus. I'm not sure what bus it was, wasn't paying that close attention. At the time I assumed he brought it. I have heard rumored it was fairtax, but that was just who's I heard it was not something I knew for sure.
I agree with you on Romney. He spent a lot of money, way too much if you ask me.
Posted by Tracy McAfee | August 22, 2007 3:39 PM
I stand corrected. There WERE Huckabee supporters bussed in by the FairTax organization. I apologize. I still stand behind Huckabee's campaign.
Posted by Tracy McAfee | August 22, 2007 3:42 PM
I stand corrected. There WERE Huckabee supporters bussed in by the FairTax organization. I apologize. I still stand behind Huckabee's campaign.
Posted by Tracy McAfee | August 22, 2007 3:42 PM
I stand corrected. There WERE Huckabee supporters bussed in by the FairTax organization. I apologize. I still stand behind Huckabee's campaign.