August 23, 2007

NIE: No Real Surprises

The latest National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq has leaked out of Washington this afternoon, and it consists of an update to the official January NIE. According to the most complete republication of the unclassified portion, it tells us little that has not already been known from the political debate over the direction of the war.

Since the posting scripts got bombed out here earlier at CQ, I posted my analysis at Heading Right. (It's a good reminder to check there when CQ is having issues anyway.) Over at HR, I look at three reasons for optimism, two of which can be found in the report and one that arose after its completion. The report does a good job of honestly laying out the challenges in Iraq, which are formidable -- but we haven't lost yet, unless we quit.

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The place to go is the Small Wars Journal to start. The NIE is a fair assessment and the full 10 page document can be found here, which doesn’t mean it is the best way to look at every issue. Nevertheles the Small Wars Journal gives a good repres... [Read More]

Comments (10)

Posted by Carol Herman | August 23, 2007 6:14 PM

I guess it depends where ya shop?

Today's Internet is REACTIVE. It's like the old "LEMON" signs that used to adorn the products coming off of Detroit's production lines. Back in the days when the engineers were told to take a hike. And, the high paying jobs went to the marketeers.

Sure, you bought cars that broke down a lot. And, the head honchos laughed a lot.

And, Japan took notice.

It sure doesn't pay to laugh at the public, whose complaints about your products went unnoticed.

Some Americans, upset and frustrated that their lemons didn't drive well, took to carrying signs, which were homemade. And, they stuck them UP for all to see. The word they carried was: LEMONS.

Today's Internet does the heavy lifting.

And, the media giants don't even know what's hit them.

I've read some great comments on the Internet. In my time.

And, yesterday, I saw a poster talking about the difference, between the skid marks left by Dan Rather; while TNR's haven't left any. BECAUSE THEY WENT OVER THE CLIFF. That's why skid marks didn't show up for TNR's mischief.

ILt's also why the Internet gets an audience. You know that, don't cha? Hundreds of thousands of people are "looking." And, lots of people, unpaid, are still active.

Just like when you go look at our US Constitution. Freedom are protected by the First and Second Amendments. It just how our FREEDOMS keep being freedoms.

Posted by Ledger1 | August 23, 2007 7:37 PM

Captain your link to the WaPo was just as biased as could be.

“Iraq government unable to govern itself.” That is all the farther I got before clicking to a different site.

Naturally, the reader is left to assume we should throw in the towel and take the last helicopter out.

I dislike the WaPo and its parent the NYT. They are spoiled hippies of the seventies with a political axe to grind. Give them your time and they will waste it.

I would advise your readers to take the WaPo's distortions with a grain of salt.

Posted by Captain Ed | August 23, 2007 7:47 PM

Ledger,

Well, that was the point, really -- to show the media take on the NIE as opposed to what it actually said. I probably didn't make that clear enough here, but I think it was pretty clear at Heading Right.

Posted by DubiousD | August 23, 2007 7:54 PM

Captain Ed:

The full NIE is available here.

http://billroggio.com/multimedia/Iraq-NIE-summer-2007.pdf

Posted by J. Gocht | August 23, 2007 9:15 PM

Gentlemen and ladies…
With respect to the release of the most recent NIE…!

Not to fast me camaraderie’s…!
Least yeah forget the last...?

Olde soldier sends...
jgocht@countryspeed.com

Posted by Carol Herman | August 23, 2007 9:55 PM

One reason so many people go to the Net, and bypass, the 'mainstream' media; is that they've figured out the "professionals" are working for one side of the street. They're NOT neutral! And, they have an agenda.

Okay. I think my point is well settled.

But we're a few years in since 2000. And, the media hasn't changed one iota.

They also didn't accomplish what they set out to do; which was to destroy Bush. And, his presidency.

I guess we've finally reached the place, "where the media doesn't have Nixon, to kick around any longer." Nixon folded. And, following our departure from Vietnam, it became apparent that our enemies, who had been on the ropes, then came in and demolished human lives. This same monstrosity is being "re-sold" as "something we could do to arabs."

Not very bright.

Not very successful, as operations go.

And, Bush, who has just a little time left in office, has a habit of GOING SLOW. So, other than Tommy Franks run-through, in 3 weeks of American fighting; what we were doing in Irak was done by poor planning. But not malice.

Okay. I think Bush thought Irak would become Sunni property. The Saud's would add more oil to their bank accounts. And, ya know what? It didn't happen.

As to what Harry Ried is doing now, is trying to recover from the fact that most Americans aren't buying Bonkey goods. So, it's a "shift," sort'a.

But it's still designed to fight Bush.

While, in Iraq, because of the Internet, lots of people get reports. Which they pick up on various blogs. And, they see that things aren't as bad as the press would have you believe.

Doesn't mean the Bonkeys don't have an anger level! That's the one thing they do have.

And, Maliki? He's way more experienced, and he seems to be "holding on." As a matter of fact, that the wave of money the Saud's are throwing into Madison Avenue; I imagine that Maliki is on the right track. And, that could mean among the Iraqis, he's holding his own.

I remember the "ad people" going after Olmert. Any day, Olmert was supposed to fall out of his chair. And, he didn't.

Since the PRESS is the enemy,and we've got to watch this war play out; as they try to destroy the GOP, ahead. It should get very interesting.

OR? Like TNR. They print their views. They don't back-track. And, they fly over and off the cliff's edge. The future is full of random roads, so who really knows how the mistakes will play out?

Posted by hunter | August 23, 2007 10:31 PM

Why should we now start putting any credibility in the intel community?
They blew Cold War, needlessly extending it by not seeing how vulnerable the USSR was to economic competition.
They blew the first Gulf War, not reading Saddam correctly.
They blew 911, ignoring the intel.
They blew the Iraq war runup, declaring the WMDs a slam dunk.
They blew their loyalty, waging war against this Administration by leaking top secret intel ops tot he NYT and everyone else.
This latest betrayal of an ally is chillingly similar to their total misperception of Vietnam when the winked or helped the coup against the only popular leader in Vietnam.
It is not that the intel community is left or right. It is that they are lacking in judgement and have a track record to prove it.
I think we will do right if we stand loyal to the Iraqi government in place and if we let them know we will be there for them. I know, I know: Americans, being loyal and steadfast to a struggling ally? No way! Well maybe we can do something a bit different and actually win the first war since WWII.

Posted by hunter | August 23, 2007 10:39 PM

Why should we now start putting any credibility in the intel community?
They blew Cold War, needlessly extending it by not seeing how vulnerable the USSR was to economic competition.
They blew the first Gulf War, not reading Saddam correctly.
They blew 911, ignoring the intel.
They blew the Iraq war runup, declaring the WMDs a slam dunk.
They blew their loyalty, waging war against this Administration by leaking top secret intel ops tot he NYT and everyone else.
This latest betrayal of an ally is chillingly similar to their total misperception of Vietnam when the winked or helped the coup against the only popular leader in Vietnam.
It is not that the intel community is left or right. It is that they are lacking in judgement and have a track record to prove it.
I think we will do right if we stand loyal to the Iraqi government in place and if we let them know we will be there for them. I know, I know: Americans, being loyal and steadfast to a struggling ally? No way! Well maybe we can do something a bit different and actually win the first war since WWII.

Posted by Neo | August 23, 2007 11:44 PM

There is something for everybody in this NIE.

For instance ..

Perceptions that the Coalition is withdrawing probably will encourage factions anticipating a power vacuum to seek local security solutions that could intensify sectarian violence and intra-sectarian competition. At the same time, fearing a Coalition withdrawal, some tribal elements and Sunni groups probably will continue to seek accommodation with the Coalition to strengthen themselves for a post- Coalition security environment.

Harry Reid et al won't like any of this.

Posted by swabjockey05 | August 24, 2007 4:44 AM

"...but we haven't lost yet, unless we quit."

"unless" we quit? "We" started to quit years ago...the dhimmis are just waiting to pull the final plug. I wonder who will be the the last soldier to die in this "lost cause" ?

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