Sadr Backs Down
Moqtada al-Sadr, who has tread lightly on Iraq's stage for the past several months, announced today that his Mahdi Army will undergo rehabilitation. It will take the next six months to reorganize itself, and in the meantime will conduct no offensive operations in Iraq, including actions against American forces:
Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has ordered a six-month suspension of activities by his Mahdi Army militia in order to reorganize the force, and it will no longer attack U.S. and coalition troops, aides said Wednesday.The aide, Sheik Hazim al-Araji, said on Iraqi state television that the goal was to "rehabilitate" the organization, which has reportedly broken into factions, some of which the U.S. maintains are trained and supplied by Iran.
"We declare the freezing of the Mahdi Army without exception in order to rehabilitate it in a way that will safeguard its ideological image within a maximum period of six months starting from the day this statement is issued," al-Araji said, reading from a statement by al-Sadr.
In Najaf, al-Sadr's spokesman said the order also means the Mahdi Army will no longer launch attacks against U.S. and other coalition forces.
The cycle of violence already seems to be slowing down. Having the Mahdis sidelined will mean less violence in Baghdad, where the militias had ruled the streets until the Americans decided to conduct their aggressive strategy starting in February. It may also mean a capitualtion in the south, where the Mahdis had battled against the Badr Brigade for control after the British pullout.
The final straw appears to have been a fight in Karbala that left 52 dead during a Shi'ite pilgrimage. Authorities had prepared for attacks by Sunni terrorists, but instead the big clash came from the Shi'ites, instigated from Sadr's goon squads. The reference to safeguarding its "ideological image" undoubtedly comes from the mind-bogglingly stupid decision to attack the Badr factions during a pilgrimage in one of Shi'a Islam's most holy cities -- exactly the kind of dumb political thinking that has become emblematic of Sadr himself.
A six-month vacation from Sadr will be exactly what the Iraqi government needs to keep the momentum towards reform. Sadr would have been a major stumbling block to the new agreements announced on Sunday, but his political position has eroded badly since the start of the surge. His flight to Iran undermined his credibility, and Maliki's survival without Sadr's ministers called Sadr's bluff.
So far, the signs look good for stability and progress in Iraq. If the situation continues to improve, the six month break will likely turn into a permanent end to the Mahdis and their influence on Iraq.
Posted by Ed Morrissey on August 29, 2007 9:43 AM | Comments (33) | TrackBacks (2)
Comments (33)
Posted by RBMN | August 29, 2007 10:13 AM
The Democrat congressional staffers must be very busy this morning, running around taking away the pills and sharp implements.
Posted by lexhamfox | August 29, 2007 10:38 AM
It is a very positive delopment. It will be interesting to see if Sadr actually has effective control over the 'army' and if they actually do suspend their activities. The recent flare up in Karbala makes headlines. I wonder if the suspension will include halting the activities of the affiliated death squads who make daily life a misery for Iraqis.
Posted by Gary Gross | August 29, 2007 10:40 AM
It's safe to say that the more positive news that we get from Iraq, and this definitely qualifies as good news, the dicier things get for Democratic presidential candidates. For that matter, I'd doubt that this helps Nancy Pelosi maintain control of the House in 2008.
Posted by Otter | August 29, 2007 10:51 AM
Do Not Trust. But DO Hope. And listen for the distant sounds of breaking glass, as Democrat/Leftist hopes for defeat are tossed out the window :)
I notice they say the Mahdi Army has broken into factions. Sure bet some of those will continue the violence, especially with Iranian backing.
But it is still an improvement.
Posted by paladin | August 29, 2007 10:51 AM
You might want to read Hanlon-Pollacks 13 page report from their trip. It seriously dispels any notion that progress will come from the national political scene. Sadr's announcement is more a reflection of what's happening to him on the ground, not in the Green Zone.
http://www3.brookings.edu/fp/research/2007august_iraqreport.pdf
Posted by paladin | August 29, 2007 10:53 AM
You might want to read Hanlon-Pollacks 13 page report from their trip. It seriously dispels any notion that progress will come from the national political scene. Sadr's announcement is more a reflection of what's happening to him on the ground, not in the Green Zone.
http://www3.brookings.edu/fp/research/2007august_iraqreport.pdf
Posted by MarkJ | August 29, 2007 10:59 AM
Have you see the little Mahdis
crawling in the dirt
And for all the little Madhis
Life is getting worse
Always having dirt
to play around in
Have you seen the bigger Mahdis
In their starched white shirts
You will find the bigger Mahdis
Stirring up the dirt
Always have clean shirts
to play around in
In their sties with all their backing
They don't care what goes on around
In their eyes there's something lacking
What they need's a damn good whacking
Everywhere there's lots of Mahdis
Living Madhi lives
You can see them out for dinner
With their Mahdi wives
Clutching forks and knives
to eat their bacon
Posted by rbj | August 29, 2007 11:09 AM
Depends upon how much of the Mahdi "army" will actually listen to him rather than the puppet masters in Tehran. Still, it is a positive step.
Posted by Carol Herman | August 29, 2007 11:10 AM
Mookie's on the ropes. Even though he sailed in against the Sunni terror aparatus; and even though he's a Shi'a. He's still a marginal Shi'a; in an Iraqi world where Chalabi also has his own goons.
Mookie's also run away, and hidden. Because our military is now going after him.
How long he lives, ahead? Dunno.
But Maliki isn't gonna have Irak robbed out of his pockets, over this illiterate fool.
The House of Soddies are still the biggest problem in the area. And, they have been. They've been coddled since 1928. And, in WW2, when our star began rising over the British "hold" on the Saud's, FDR "invited" these ugly fools aboard his destroyer. So he could meet with them. And, they behaved like ding-dong savages aboard the American vessel.
So? WE KNEW!
And, then in 1974, OPEC pulled out chains. No one has ever stood up to them, and forbidden them to spread terror through the madrassas. And, now terror is GLOBAL!
I'd bet the average Iraqi, INCLUDING the Sunni ones who not not crazy-with-religion, are facing dispair. Because all other Iraqis hate their guts.
ANd, to stop the bleedig out, of Sunni Iraqis from Irak; Amman, Jordan, no longer welcomes IN "tourists" from Baghdad. FORCING ALL THE SUNNI ONE'S BACK! No landing privileges. Just havoc, for days, at the Amman airport. Under police guard.
I read this up at Iraq The Model. And, ya know what? IT made no sense! Heck, Allawi's in Amman, having his neck saved. So what's the story?
And, then, I figured it out.
The Sunni's; Allawi and Chalabi (if he is one, too), can no longer tolerate the exodux, out of Iraq, by the Sunnis, who are now terrified of reprisals. What better way to stop the flood than at the Amman airport.
Despots don't care about "subjects."
Which means Sunni Iraqis, NOT THEIR LEADERS, have what to be concerned over.
Boy, the stuff the press is incapable of tell you; but you'll find it, if you keep checking Internet sites.
Posted by rbj | August 29, 2007 11:23 AM
Depends upon how much of the Mahdi "army" will actually listen to him rather than the puppet masters in Tehran. Still, it is a positive step.
Posted by PJ Smith | August 29, 2007 11:47 AM
To me this looks like Sadr is betting on a Democrat-forced surrender. For six months he can reorganize internal power and restock armaments without taking the physical and political losses that conflict with the coalition forces brings.
He hopes to resume control from a stronger position after we've been weakened at home.
Posted by hermie | August 29, 2007 11:54 AM
Maybe he's just getting ready for his new spot as co-anchor of the CBS Evening News, when Perky Katie Couric gets airlifted in.
(Will he insist she wear a burka?...Will she comply?)
Posted by Gary Gross | August 29, 2007 11:56 AM
Sadr's announcement that they're taking a six month hiatus won't prevent Gen. Petraeus from stepping up the attacks on Sadr's militias.
Posted by unclesmrgol | August 29, 2007 12:05 PM
A hudna, eh?
rbj,
How do you know the puppet masters in Iran haven't told him to do this? Maybe he needs a resupply of something.
Posted by Donald R. McConnell | August 29, 2007 12:12 PM
Nice if real. It is quite possible Sadr realizes he has gone one step too far in allowing his thugs to attack Sistani's men during the Shia pilgrimage season. Sadr could find himself targeted if he is blamed publicly. So he publicly claims to pull back.
Sadly I will not be surprised if Sadr's thugs keep doing their ugly deeds while claiming to be outside of Sadr's control. That seems to be the standard approach to these thinks in Middle Eastern history.
I hope he is repentant, but knowing just a tiny bi about his regions culture and history, I have very real doubts he will stop making trouble during his lifetime despite many apparent treaties, truces, rest breaks etc.
Posted by bayam | August 29, 2007 12:22 PM
I have to line up behind the previous comment- Sadr's orders are one thing, whether his followers actually listen is another issue.
Captain sounds too optimistic and gives Maliki too much weight- every analysis I read says that his power is negligible, even over his own cabinet.
Looking at Karbala, you have to wonder how peace in Iraq has a chance. Intead of unifying behind their newfound power in Iraq, the Shitte can't even agree not to kill each other. And if the Shitte reach a power-sharing deal with the Sunnis, will one of the large Shiite factions splinter off in protest, creating another insurgent group opposed to the government? I'm supporting the surge as long as it appears to be working but there has to be political progress for the sacrifices of our troops to ultimately make a difference.
Posted by hunter | August 29, 2007 12:57 PM
This is real political progress. If the dhimmies cannot hault this soon, we may have a victory on our hands.
Posted by filistro | August 29, 2007 12:59 PM
So far, the signs look good for stability and progress in Iraq. If the situation continues to improve, the six month break will likely turn into a permanent end to the Mahdis and their influence on Iraq....
Oh, please. Hundreds are being killed in Karbala, a Shi'ite pilgrimage city where even Shi'ite leadership can't keep the peace. Basra is on fire as Mahdi and Badr armies attack each other savagely in freelance power plays. Iran chuckles on the sidelines and cheers the mayhem.
Meanwhile al-Sadr is like the elderly teacher wringing her hands at the back of the classroom and saying, "Children, children, quiet please. We must use our inside voices. Now let's all settle down and open our textbooks..." While her students are overturning desks, attacking each other with knives and lobbing hand grenades through the windows.
Being wilfully ignorant of the facts isn't just naive and silly. There are times when it can be downright lethal.
Posted by SeniorD | August 29, 2007 1:00 PM
Sounds to me like Muqtada's taking a play from the North Vietnamese. Claim one thing, get us to back away, re-arm, start fighting again.
One hopes he stays in Iran. The bounty on his head has GOT to be larger than his ego.
Posted by pk | August 29, 2007 3:10 PM
we might already have a victory. if you bounce the normal average mayhem in Iraq in years past against the current level we might be a lot closer than most people think.
of course the liberals want it to be below the level of Sprole Montana before they will admit that the bushies were not wrong after all.
C
Posted by Tom W. | August 29, 2007 3:25 PM
The reason the Shi'ites are fighting is because the Sunnis are no longer a threat.
Anyone who's been paying attention instead of wasting time looking up 80-year-old articles to bolster their sneering defeatism would have known that armed conflict between the Shi'ite factions was inevitable.
It won't last as long as the Shi'ite-Sunni battles, nor as long as the fighting between Kurdish factions that took place fifteen years ago.
You can either think like a child and let TV images and near-term calamities influence your thinking, or you can take the long view and realize how strategically vital a stable, democratic Iraq would be for the entire region.
Our troops believe the mission is achievable. I trust their judgment more than the judgment of corrupt politicians or any blog poster.
Posted by Lokki | August 29, 2007 3:35 PM
Sadr's men may continue the attacks while he claims that he does not control them, but this also means that he no longer gets to take public credit for the influence of those attacks.
He loses face and power. His value to Iran is as a mask for their actions. When he stops acting as a mask, why should they support him?
It'
Posted by Eg | August 29, 2007 3:50 PM
The Eg Property Company would like to announce they are now selling beach front property surrounding the holy city of Mecca! For just fifty-thousand dollars down….
How many times are we going to listen to this nonsense? Rehabilitation, my fanny. This is normal called a hudna and lasts as long as the **cough, cough** rehabilitation takes to regroup, rearm and put into place new strategic & tactical priorities.
We’ve watched this same tactic with the Pals for years and with Sadr on a good half-dozen or more occasions.
Posted by Tim W | August 29, 2007 5:17 PM
Hasn't Sadr done this before just as we were gearing up to annihilate him in 2004? He always takes a time out just as we are gunning for him. He's no dummy. Petreaus has turned the Sunnis around and gotten the Sunnis to turn against Al Qaeda and now it is time to go after Sadr. This is definitely being orchestrated by the Iranians as they don’t want their investment in Hezbollah-Iraq to be destroyed like Al Qaeda recently was.
Now is the time for Petreaus to attack, attack attack and slaughter the Mahdi army once and for all. Its time to deal with the Iranian problem once and for all by destroying the Mahdi army.
Posted by Tim W | August 29, 2007 5:21 PM
Hasn't Sadr done this before just as we were gearing up to annihilate him in 2004? He always takes a time out just as we are gunning for him. He's no dummy. Petreaus has turned the Sunnis around and gotten the Sunnis to turn against Al Qaeda and now it is time to go after Sadr. This is definitely being orchestrated by the Iranians as they don’t want their investment in Hezbollah-Iraq to be destroyed like Al Qaeda recently was.
Now is the time for Petreaus to attack, attack attack and slaughter the Mahdi army once and for all. Its time to deal the Iranian's some payback by destroying the Mahdi army.
Posted by mw | August 29, 2007 5:32 PM
"If the situation continues to improve, the six month break will likely turn into a permanent end to the Mahdis and their influence on Iraq." - em
It strikes me there is an awful lot of wishful thinking going on around this story. It is important to note, that while Americans like to think of al-Sadr as "the enemy", the Iraqi Prime Minister, the Iraqi government, and the majority of the majority Shia in Iraq do not think of him as "the enemy."
Perhaps it is useful to recall that when the statue of Saddam Hussein was torn down in 2003 in the middle of what we now call "Sadr City", it was the supporters of Moqtada al-Sadr that we cheered dragging Hussein's head through the street. They were the very oppressed religious sect we went there to liberate. When Saddam's portrait was defaced, it was a poster of Sadr that went up in in its place. Congratulations. We won! More recently we learned from Michael Totten, that the Mahdi Army is in the process of becoming the Iraqi Army.
So al-Sadr has announced that he will re-assert control. This may or may not have been a rogue group that al-Sadr must deal with. Whether they were rogue or under orders, this move cannot be seen as good for us. Al-Sadr moves the Mahdi Army like pieces on a political chess board, in a game that we seem completely oblivious we are playing. He has been consistently under-estimated by Americans and the American press. We are doing it again now.
Posted by patrick neid | August 29, 2007 6:15 PM
I still say, now going on three years, shoot him on sight.
Change is good!
Posted by richard mcenroe | August 29, 2007 7:01 PM
My soldiers are dead or running away! I hereby declare a truce!
Posted by Cain | August 29, 2007 7:32 PM
Keep pounding him. This sounds like little more than a hudna. He's gasping for breath and asking for a timeout to recover and fight again. Why play into his hands? I agree with Patrick; "...shoot him on sight."
Posted by mw | August 29, 2007 8:08 PM
Cain, Mcenroe, Neld,
You guys really need to understand something. We are not pounding him. We are not pounding his army. We are not targeting him. We are not targeting his army. He was part of the government we are supporting, which he left on his own, and may be back. The Iraqi government we are defending and al Sadr are working together. What we are actually doing militarily, is killing his enemies, while he sits on the sideline and his supporters join the Iraqi Army. The same Iraqi army which is supposed to stand up so we can stand down. I hope this helps your understanding of the situation.
Posted by patrick neid | August 29, 2007 9:36 PM
mw,
as i mentioned i started calling for his head three years ago. then he was a fat ugly bastard with bad teeth and a few hundred wannabes losers hanging around him. one year later he had several thousand followers. two years later he had ten thousand and a piece of a new government. at this rate he'll have 100's of thousands and the entire government in a few years. it's never to late to shoot a murderous thug.
my only hope at this point is that he's on our payroll. otherwise shoot him immediately and anyone that takes his place. as for his followers, continue to shoot them as we have. they have and will continue to kill us at every opportunity.
Posted by mw | August 29, 2007 11:07 PM
Patrick,
I was not here three years ago, but you were right then, and you are right now. I expect he is on our payroll, and he'll continue to be on it, for exactly as long as it serves his purpose and ambition.
Posted by chuckster | August 30, 2007 7:27 AM
And of course the Iraqi and US Forces will back off,and let up on the pressure on this radical.
That will give him time to re-arm,and recruit,then come back against us full force.
Does anyone else out there feel this is no way to win a war?
Very stupid if you do not come down hard on your enemy and eliminate him while he is at his weakest!