Musharraf's Options Narrowing
Pervez Musharraf sees fewer and fewer options for remaining in power, and he may decide to declare an emergency despite pressure from the US and the West. The warning of de facto martial law comes as Musharraf negotiates with Benazir Bhutto for her return and her alliance against the extremists that Musharraf once courted:
A top adviser to Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf acknowledged Tuesday that the general's options for staying in power are increasingly bleak and said that a declaration of emergency is being considered as a way of keeping him in office.Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, president of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League, said that while a complete military takeover under martial law had been ruled out, a state of emergency that would allow for the postponement of elections for up to a year and the curtailment of individual liberties was still on the table. "Martial law is a very harsh word," Hussain said in an interview. "Emergency rule is not so harsh."
The comments came on the same day that nearly simultaneous bombs tore through a market and a bus in the garrison city of Rawalpindi, killing 25 people and injuring more than 60 others in attacks that seemed to target the Pakistani military. The bus, operated by the Defense Ministry, was taking employees of Pakistan's influential Inter-Services Intelligence branch to work, according to witnesses and officials.
Hussain's comments also came as government negotiators made a last-ditch effort to strike a deal with former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, a bitter Musharraf rival but one who could rescue him politically in exchange for a shot at returning to power herself.
The crux of the crisis is an expected ruling from an increasingly hostile Supreme Court. Technically, Musharraf is ineligible to run for president because as Army Chief of Staff, he's a government employee. Musharraf asked the court to ignore this provision forcing government employees to resign and wait two years before running for elective office, but his writ at the court has been badly damaged by his attempt to remove a highly-respected member of the judiciary earlier this year.
If the court rules against him, as it almost certainly will, Musharraf has two options. The first will be emergency rule and the postponement of elections for over a year. That might buy him some time, but it will absolutely devastate his long-term political prospects. It also will force the moderates away from Musharraf and isolate him even further in Pakistan.
The other option is parliamentary elections as a postponing measure. It might pay off for Musharraf's party, but without Bhutto, no one will consider the results credible. It might make matters worse, as the extremists could gain more power in Parliament, especially if the moderates refuse to participate if Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif are not allowed to return.
It's crunch time for Musharraf, and he knows it.
Posted by Ed Morrissey on September 5, 2007 11:23 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBacks (0)
Comments (4)
Posted by KW64 | September 5, 2007 12:33 PM
Musharraf needs a deal with Bhutto but she feels she can demand concessions that would make the president a mere figurehead. Musharraf won't give in to that, so he probably is throwing our a state of emergency threat as an indication that he can live without a Hhutto deal in order to get her to relent on her demands for restrictions of presidential power.
The militant attacks are quite useful to Pervez in this ploy, but in reality, it is not the preferred option for Musharraf or Bhutto. Pervez would get continuing demonstrations from political moderates against non-democratic rule at the same time he is threatened by the Islamist extreme. The army will not like being beset on two fronts--riots and terrorism at the same time. The State of Emergency gives nothing to Bhutto.
It is high time that a compromise is reached. If Sherif comes back and wins, he will kill Musharraf and Bhutto will never see Pakistan again. Maybe a deal will come soon. A guarantee that Pervez will have enough power to stifle Bhutto's and her followers' corruption would be useful for all concerned.
Posted by Sanjeev | September 5, 2007 12:42 PM
>>
but his writ at the court has been badly damaged by his attempt to remove a highly-respected member of the judiciary earlier this year.
>>
Not just any member, he tried to remove the Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry ... and now he wants the Supreme Court's permission to ignore a law. Ha!
Simply put, he is a (military) Dictator trying to hold on to power.
Posted by Carol Herman | September 5, 2007 1:17 PM
Sometimes, we limit ourselves by what occurred in the past.
Well. In the past, Mrs. Butto was one of these "darlings" to the left; as a fine example of how far affirmative action can take ya.
In Pakistan this is less far than people, here, suppose.
But you're trying to "translate" what you know; in terms of politics, with what happens in places where the languages, customs, and history, are different.
That's like the wonderful translation of the diplomat's "goodbye to paris." Where, when he said, I'm looking backwards to the post I've enjoyed so much ... It came out as: My behind is split ... and I love the side that says paris. You could misinterpret this as an advertisement for a tattoo parlor. See if I care?
Up ahead? Even when history repeats, the first tragedy returns as farce.
Oh, this summer. That Red Mosque that became rubble? Housed in that "conspiracy hut" ... with Soddie funding, were lunatics. With guns. About a block away from Musharraf's mansion. And, one night, when his helicopter was decending, from the roof of the Red Mosque, an asasination attempt was tried. Which failed.
Oh, you've heard "payback's a bitch?" You could use this expression a lot, when you're thinking Musharraf's run out of cards.
Or a muslim women can "win her way back into politics."
You know what I think? Butto's chances are even weaker than Hillary's.
But it's a circus out there. No one has any idea how things will turn out.
Heck, when the german tribes crossed the Rhine, in 440 AD. They went to Rome. And, destroyed the Roman civilization. Well, that threw off the lights. Let me tell ya. The world went dark for 1000 years.
Again, in the last Century, after the germans and austrians were "refining the art of war," Europe, again, began choosing wars as solutions to problems.
And, you know the miracle? To this day there are jerks who think hitler won! They know how to tattoo the "reverse windmill" on their bodies. And, they 'Zieg Heil' themselves around. Oh, and those that can read? They tell you Mein (kleiner) Kompf, is their stupid bible.
Meanwhile, like arafish, hitler went into a hidey hole, and more guts that Saddam, grabbed a gun, and sucked on the barrel.
It's amazing. hitler's exit didn't trample his reputation.
Nor does it change the reality that the Romans NEVER crossed the Rhine, because they thought the germanic tribes were animals and savages.
What can you learn? SOme things never change. Even when history provides light switches; so it's something you can do every day. You, too, can shut off all your lights. So what?
Butto once got the press to give her so much attention and affection. And, ya know what? She got tossed out of office. I even think her hubby went to jail?
Pakistani's don't run their country like Americans think they do.
And, it's true. Musharraf won't live forever. Where, on "that" subject, you'd learn that over in eygpt, Mubarak's got a lock on the house keys. He expects one of his son's to fill his shoes.
While, in Leona Helmsley's world, leaving billions, she left none to close family members; and $12-million to her dog. And, the world can't right a thing.
Posted by Ray | September 5, 2007 9:37 PM
There is a third option available, but I doubt he'll take it. He has the option of resigning and naming a replacement, that way he could still positively influence Pakistan's political structure and reverse the current crisis without resorting to "emergency rule." If he picks the right replacement, he may even create a stronger government without having to bend to Bhutto's will. That could be a win-win situation, but I have no idea who he could name as a replacement.