Osama Video Featuring Fake Beard?
ABC News reports that some intelligence analysts believe that the newly-trimmed and blackened beard featured in the upcoming Osama bin Laden video may be false. It could indicate that Osama has hotfooted it to a country where a beard would make him stand out from the crowd, which would require a phony for his videos:
Intelligence sources tell ABC News they believe the expected video message from Osama bin Laden is authentic, recently produced and evidence the al Qaeda leader is still alive.U.S. authorities now say they have a transcript which they say is aimed at potential suicide bombers who he urges to carry out missions against the West. ...
"It does look oddly like he is wearing a false beard," Richard Clarke, a former White House counterterrorism official and now ABC News consultant, said. "If we go back to the tape three years, he had a very white beard. This looks like a phony beard that has been passed on."
The "phony beard" may be an important clue as to where bin Laden is hiding, according to Clarke.
"One place where a beard would stand out would be southeast Asia, the Philippines, Indonesia," Clarke told ABC News. "No one's thought he was there, but that is an environment where most men, Muslim men don't have beards."
It's also an environment where a tall Saudi would stick out like a sore thumb, beard or not. Could Osama have been hiding in plain sight all along? One would think that our intel agencies would have been watching for such a move, and it seems a little fantastical to think that he could have moved out of Pakistan and Afghanistan to the South Pacific without triggering some sort of alarms.
Still, it gives us another clue to the status of Osama. If the beard is false, he's obviously not among the traditional Islamists, where the facial hair style is de rigueur. The alternative could be that his long-rumored illness has become bad enough to have his hair fall out, and the beard is intended to keep his decline from becoming too obvious.
Also, it seems clear that the video is meant to trigger attacks somewhere. If the Denmark and Germany cells were the intended recipients of this message, its subsequent release appears to be an acknowledgement of al-Qaeda's impotence at the moment as much as a statement about Osama's ability to draw breath. It also calls into question why Osama has been so quiet the last three years.
Posted by Ed Morrissey on September 7, 2007 8:38 AM | Comments (30) | TrackBacks (2)
Comments (30)
Posted by gordinkneehill | September 7, 2007 9:22 AM
Heh. I've long maintained that he has long since flown the Afghan coop, and is hiding in plain sight amongst the titty bars of Angeles City, or one of the other fleshpots of SE Asia. Shaved his beard, and adopted the persona of an eccentric retired American professor of Armenian or maybe Greek descent.
The Phillipines would be an ideal locale for him, as he could keep in touch with his minions by way of the Abu Sayyaf Islamists, but Thailand is certainly an option, and we might take note that the jihad in Thailand has taken quite an uptick lately.
I know it would be a tough row for him to hoe, having to drink in bars, and hang out with all the cute little Asian women, instead of his beloved goats, but hey, he's a dedicated S.O.B.
Posted by Paul Ramsey | September 7, 2007 9:25 AM
Captain Ed,
There are reports that there is a BILLION dollar put in the markets that the American financial markets will falter as a result of a terrorist attack or Al Qaeda "Special Gift" in September. It has been said that similar, albeit smaller puts were placed against American and United Airlines prior to 911.
Please check it out.
Paul
Posted by wolfwalker | September 7, 2007 9:32 AM
I favor a simpler explanation for the short black beard: it's an old photograph. I haven't seen any conclusive evidence that bin Laden was still alive since the siege of Tora Bora six years ago.
Posted by Bryan | September 7, 2007 9:35 AM
I don't buy it. His clothes and the background are the same as the video from three years ago. I'd be more inclined to believe that they have a few people with some video editing talent rather than Osama shaving, moving to Indonesia, transporting the background and his Sunday best, and releasing the new video.
I don't know if he's dead or alive, and truthfully, while I hope he is dead, I don't think it makes much difference. His followers will believe fake messages and much as real ones. And if he's alive, it's the same. So other than the satisfaction of knowing that he's dead, it doesn't really change anything, does it? Even if we had proof, we'd be accused of fabricating it. So does it really matter?
Posted by Rovin | September 7, 2007 9:55 AM
So does it really matter?
Of couse it does Bryan. If it is factually proven that the old buzzard is dead, the democrat-spin-cycle would be at warp speed.
Posted by LarryD | September 7, 2007 9:58 AM
Bryan, no, it really doesn't matter, despite what some Democrats say.
Considering that the "analysts" were pontificating on a tape that hadn't been released yet, and were drawing all their inferences from a still photo purportedly from the as-then unreleased video, the claim that the video was "authentic, recently produced and evidence the al Qaeda leader is still alive." is way premature.
Posted by chip | September 7, 2007 10:11 AM
I think this is the type of analysis Richard Clarke was supplying Clinton.
"Hey, the beard looks kinda fake.
Hmm, Indonesians don't have beards.
That's it! He's in Jakarta!"
Posted by CDR M | September 7, 2007 10:17 AM
I would be very surprised if he was in the Philippines. I've been there recently assisting the AFP. The leadership of Abu Sayif and MILF holed up in Zamboanga and Jolo over the past 3 years have had their leadership taken out (KJ and others). For some reason, it doesn't really make the news here but there have been some huge successes there. Easier for Bin Laden to hole up in Indonesia. As for Angeles City, Bin Laden would tower over the locals and the area isn't very muslim, mostly communist and Catholic.
Posted by 9022 | September 7, 2007 10:24 AM
I thought the headlines were going to lead to a story that he is gay - and by gay I don't mean happy.
Posted by John F Not Kerry | September 7, 2007 11:18 AM
We can speculate all we want about the meaning of all these video releases, but I think it comes down to two things:
1. If any terrorist needs to rely on any news organization to get his message out, then his communication system has been severely compromised. With all the captures of HVT's, the remaining leaders must know they cannot trust a cell phone or email
2. The terrorists are not winning on any battlefield (except for the Pakistani appeasement), so they continually try to influence world opinion through anti-American media, including US outlets.
This video release should be greeted with derision. OBL is dead, and AQ is losing people faster than it can replace them. We need to have the will to see the GWOT through to victory, no matter how long it takes, with the vigilance shown in successes here, and in Denmark and Germany.
Posted by Drew | September 7, 2007 11:33 AM
"...One would think that our intel agencies would have been watching for such a move,..."
Except, that they've been a little busy the last few years circling the wagons around Val and the Ambassador.
I mean, there are certain priorities.
Posted by SonnyJim | September 7, 2007 12:04 PM
For goodness' sake Cap'n,
ABC of all choices reports on a picture from a website of an unseen video? And you run with that?
Clearly you need to step back a little and think.
Posted by Only One Cannoli | September 7, 2007 12:12 PM
I wondered if (hoped) the missing beard might be the result of chemotherapy but your explanation seems more likely. Either that or he's a vain terrorist and he's discovered grecian formula.
He has a droopy right eyelid that I don't recall seeing in previous photos. Normal aging? The effects of a stroke? Hard to see much in that tiny pic.
Posted by Terry | September 7, 2007 1:04 PM
Why do we have this conversation?
OBL is dead. Nothing seen of him since Tora
Bora. We got him and the press knows it because they don't do the obvious, compare pictures of before and "now". Not with this one, not with the last one or two, never. Because, well they have, in the production room, and when they do they see the obvious, the videos of post 9-11 are fakes and/or pre 9-11 OBL.
You would think the internet would have buried this issue by now.
Posted by viking01 | September 7, 2007 1:04 PM
There's lots of ways OBL could prove a video is current. He could hold up the cover of one of Time magazine's recent pro-Hillary hit pieces. He could show a copy of the latest Harry Potter book. While giving us his rant he could fiddle with his Pirates of the Caribbean action figure set. Lots of ways to prove he's still alive besides the word of Al Quaeda's friends at Al Jazeera.
We know Hollywood supports the anti- US troops cause... and OBL's double does look a lot like the science teacher in "Fast Times at Ridgemont High" with the Malibu Hills in the background. If his next episode is filmed at Agua Dulce with Walter Cronkite in the background holding up a "Go Team!" banner we'll know for sure.
Posted by Carol Herman | September 7, 2007 1:20 PM
His face also seemed "puffy." Drug use? Steroids?
Anyway, the real hoot is that he can't brag about London and Glasgow. He's left to reminisce about 9/11. Where he got us unawares. Because who knew the Soddie money could achieve this with passengers on board aircraft? And, we're worried about hurting their feelings with cartoons?
Part of the problem IS the Legacy media. Since they're backing the fascists and the affirmative action idiots, who've reached to their successes through manipulation.
Is this wacko video supposed to alert suicide bombers that now it's the time for them to drop dead? We should'a brought it to them. And, sooner.
Posted by Carol Herman | September 7, 2007 1:24 PM
Gordon KneeHil, I'm with you when you said he's probably hiding out in the "tiddy bars" of San Francisco; close to doctors who work with AIDS victims. Close to all the pharmacology he needs.
Oh, and to "recording studios."
I don't think he's in Thailand. Because the medical care is just better in San Francisco. Heck, he can pay in cash. Or he can use stolen ID. Nobody knows his name. But his bankers.
The Thia's (is that the word?) are way too short. He's not hanging out among stubby people.
Posted by John | September 7, 2007 1:26 PM
After hearing the first reports on the contents of the video, I'd guess that by this evening it will be Democrats who are claiming this Osama tape is a fake -- the transcript reads as if bin Laden is a diarist at Daily Kos enraged at Congressional Democrats' failure to stop Bush's war in Iraq and the war on terror in general.
Coming right before the Petreaus report to Congress, and in the middle of Democratic leaders' efforts to discredit it, the tape makes it sound as if Osama is giving marching orders to Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reed. No way they are going to want that comparison to be focused on in the days prior to the hearing.
Posted by Carol Herman | September 7, 2007 1:30 PM
Meanwhile, in spite of Chris Muir's "flight guess." Hsu, on the lamb, has been caught. Going by choo-choo to Colorado. Something like that. I didn't read the article, yet. I just saw the blurb up at Lucianne.
If Bush could show that the President has a sense of humor, he'd show up to give the Patraeus report, wearing a fake beard. If anyone asks? He could say he was channeling Abraham Lincoln.
Posted by Del Dolemonte | September 7, 2007 2:11 PM
John said:
"After hearing the first reports on the contents of the video, I'd guess that by this evening it will be Democrats who are claiming this Osama tape is a fake -- the transcript reads as if bin Laden is a diarist at Daily Kos enraged at Congressional Democrats' failure to stop Bush's war in Iraq and the war on terror in general."
Who did Ozzie endorse-Hillary or Hussein Obama?
Posted by pk | September 7, 2007 2:16 PM
hillarous that hsu was found to be train sick on amtrak (or was he supposed to be found dead in his compartment at the end of the run?)
i believe that the second (lower) picture of OBL is a cadaver. can't say why but the "lazy" right eye definately means something as does the skin coloring.
i also believe that a lot of the OBL noise will dissapear right after the 08 election.
there is a problem with the price on his head. i don't think that $50M is a sum that is easily concieved by the average t'head. one of them asks how much is that? answer, a dumptruck full of american twenties. answer, whats a dump truck?
again, how much is $50M? ans, enough to buy all of the sheep, goats, and camels in the entire middle east, ans, more than a thousand? ans, yes many times several thousand. ans, if i had that many animals then all of my relatives would come to live with me rather than a third of them. i don't know if i could stand that.
in essence we need to find something that the local elders really want. there is the appearance that every thing that we offer is so far out of their realm that they think that our people are fooling them.
perhaps five times the weight of their fattest wife in gold bars???
i hope that the special forces has addressed this problem.
C
Posted by RD | September 7, 2007 2:17 PM
I haven't the slightest idea if Osama is dead or alive but I surmise that if he is alive he is not holed up in some cave on the Pakistani border. Not with his money and connections. He is an Islamic hero living among Islamic worshipers and he is living a life of luxury under the protection of one of the many sheiks. He has his wives, children, servants, tribesmen, camels, goats and pickups with him (if he is alive that is) and is leading the life of Orilma.
Posted by pk | September 7, 2007 2:21 PM
hillarous that hsu was found to be train sick on amtrak (or was he supposed to be found dead in his compartment at the end of the run?)
i believe that the second (lower) picture of OBL is a cadaver. can't say why but the "lazy" right eye definately means something as does the skin coloring.
i also believe that a lot of the OBL noise will dissapear right after the 08 election.
there is a problem with the price on his head. i don't think that $50M is a sum that is easily concieved by the average t'head. one of them asks how much is that? answer, a dumptruck full of american twenties. answer, whats a dump truck?
again, how much is &50M? ans, enough to buy all of the sheep, goats, and camels in the entire middle east, ans, more than a thousand? ans, yes many times several thousand. ans if i had that many animals then all of my relatives would come to live with me rather than a third of them. i don't know if i could stand that.
in essence we need to find something that the local elders really want. there is the appearance that every thing that we offer is so far out of their realm that they think that our people are fooling them.
perhaps five times the weight of their fattest wife in gold bars???
i hope that the special forces has addressed this problem.
C
Posted by dhunter | September 7, 2007 2:56 PM
Definitely a fake beard. By using Richard Clarkes assessment type I would suggest he may be hanging out at 19 year old intern Monicas' boyfriends Harlam appartment. He probably has much to contribute to the dem party as boy named Hsu did.
At any rate they certainly wouldn't want him found until they defeat Bush in his "illegal war on terror".
Otherwise dirty Harry Reid may have him holed up in a Vegas Hotel Casio.
Suggest going back over dem fundraising pictures, as with boy named Hsu, he wouldn't stand out at all in that corrupt, anti-American crowd
Posted by viking01 | September 7, 2007 3:08 PM
Last I heard he was living in O.J. Simpson's guest house or maybe Noam Chomsky's basement. Gotta stick tight with his fellow travelers.
Posted by ExUrbanKevin | September 7, 2007 7:58 PM
We here at Ex- Urban League World Headquarters have worked non-stop since this video was released to get to the bottom of the Great Bin Laden Beard Mystery.
Through our tireless efforts (and no small amount of outright lying), we finally can reveal the truth of the man behind the beard at http://www.exurbanleague.com .
We report. You deride.
:)
Posted by mgrody | September 8, 2007 12:42 PM
Don't know whether he's alive or not, but the DNC seems to have him on the talking-point distribution list.
Posted by Pat | September 8, 2007 12:50 PM
I think Claire has solved Blackbeard's mystery:
http://e-biscuit.com/index.php/weblog/ululations/
Posted by Eugene | September 9, 2007 6:45 PM
New Osama video seems yet another forgery. Everyone needs Osama alive:
terrorists as symbolic leader and the US Administration - to avoid
scaling down the war on terror.
Obadiah Shoher rightly notes (
http://www.samsonblinded.org/news/osama-commemorates-911-1114 ) that
new Osama talks like a leftist university professor. I like Shoher's
analysis. No way a terrorist leader like Osama would use a speechwriter. Osama is famous
for his rhetoric.
Also, in the tape Osama both threatens America with attack (by
"proving" Americans polytheists) and offers (yet another time)
long-term coaching in Islam.
But his dyed beard makes me cautious. Islam's mujahedeen dye their
beards before battle.
Posted by stop believing them | September 10, 2007 6:46 PM
The beard is fake...but more important than that, Bin Laden is fake. Thats not him! Go look at the old videos...you will see that this bin laden looks like the guy that gave the confession. But both of those look nothing like the original slim bin laden with the slim face and tall nose and grey beard.
Let me put this another way...do you really think that a man religious fanatic would shave or dye his beard? And does it seem suspicious that the people that start talking about the beard are analysts? Maybe because they realized that the work of the cia friends looks way to fake and want to justify why. But you dont need to make the assumption that the government wants bin ladens memory alive to keep us afraid and in line with the war...All you have to do is go to youtube and do a search and you can connect the dots yourself. And if any of the videos do look fake (since the confession video looks extremely fake) then you would have to think...why doesnt the real bin laden deny these reports? Maybe because hes dead...which would be the same reason that several of the videos we have seen in the past were old recut videos with new audio. Oh...one last thing...go and research the bin laden audio tape that came out not that long after 911. The cia confirmed it was authentic shortly before a swiss reputed agency said there was a 95% chance it was fake. Who do you trust? I trust the scientists that arent making money off of bin laden.