Pervez' Pervasive Problems
Today brings lots of news from Pakistan, and almost all of it bad. Pervez Musharraf has cleared a legal hurdle for his election bid, but he has thrown political opponents of all stripes in jail to prepare for it. American intel sources tell the Los Angeles Times that he has backed away from pursuing al-Qaeda after Osama bin Laden's declaration of war against him, as he realizes that Osama's popularity outstrips his own in Pakistan:
Political turmoil and a spate of brazen attacks by Taliban fighters are forcing Pakistan's president to scale back his government's pursuit of Al Qaeda, according to U.S. intelligence officials who fear that the terrorist network will be able to accelerate its efforts to rebuild and plot new attacks.The development threatens a pillar of U.S. counter-terrorism strategy, which has depended on Pakistan to play a lead role in keeping Al Qaeda under pressure to reduce its ability to coordinate strikes.
President Pervez Musharraf, facing a potentially fateful election next month and confronting calls to yield power after years of autocratic rule, appears too vulnerable to pursue aggressive counter-terrorism operations at the behest of the United States, the intelligence officials said.
At the same time, the Pakistani military has suffered a series of embarrassing setbacks at the hands of militants in tribal areas bordering Afghanistan where Osama bin Laden and other Al Qaeda figures are believed to be hiding.
After initially taking AQ and the Taliban by surprise a few months ago with his newly aggressive tactics, the offensive bogged down quickly. His troops did not perform nearly as well as hoped, and Pakistan's army has been embarrassed by abductions and ambushes. Musharraf has had to negotiate for the release of his soldiers, a humiliating development while Western eyes remain focused on his performance.
Democratic reforms require Musharraf to become more responsive to the people. Normally, that would get applause, and the hope has been that Musharraf could align himself with moderates such as Benazir Bhutto to marginalize the radical Islamists. In truth, he doesn't appear to trust the moderates enough to share power, and as a result, he has to move closer to the Islamists or at least start leaving them alone in order to ensure his grip on power. The abandonment of the effort against the Islamists, except to secure his own position, is intended to mollify Pakistanis who sympathize far more with Osama and Mullah Omar than with the US or the West.
The Supreme Court made it easier for Musharraf to stand for re-election, at least in eligibility. They dismissed three challenges to his registration as a candidate, and Musharraf celebrated by cracking enough heads to prompt even the US to protest:
Police intensified a crackdown Monday that opposition parties say has left hundreds of activists in custody while the Supreme Court dismissed three challenges to the re-election bid of Pakistan's military leader.The U.S. Embassy issued a statement calling the crackdown "extremely disturbing" and urging the immediate release of several opposition leaders arrested since Saturday night. The government said they were detained to derail possible unrest.
Meanwhile, Musharraf has an opponent for the presidency:
A former Supreme Court judge is to stand against President Pervez Musharraf in Pakistan's October presidential election, supporters say.Wajihuddin Ahmad has to file his nomination by Thursday.
Analysts say Mr Ahmad has little chance of beating Gen Musharraf. The president is chosen by parliament and the provincial assemblies.
Ahmad does have one point in his favor -- he refused to sign the oath of allegiance to Musharraf's constitution, imposed after his 1999 coup d'etat. He has a reputation for honesty and competence, even if he has no chance of winning. The only chance Ahmad has is if the Pakistani courts rule that Musharraf cannot run for election as president, at which time Musharraf will probably declare emergency rule instead.
It's not a good set of developments. Undoubtedly, we will hear more during the week, but American hopes of having a Pakistani ally against al-Qaeda appear to be getting repeated dashes of cold water.
Posted by Ed Morrissey on September 24, 2007 7:28 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBacks (0)
Comments (5)
Posted by The Yell | September 24, 2007 8:02 AM
"We are worried," said a senior U.S. counter-terrorism official who closely monitors Pakistan's pursuit of Al Qaeda in the rugged frontier region. The official, like others, spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to publicly discuss the matter.
Ed, please! This is the usual croaking of the Establishment spooks, trying to put pressure on the Boss with anonymous press leaks. About stuff that hasn't even happened yet.
Waziristan is accessible by road only 6 months out of the year. It's coming on the snowy season. No trucks from Karachi docks are going to make the passes for months, and air supply is going to be extremely limited. The Himalayan war is going back to the foot infantry.
Posted by TomB | September 24, 2007 8:13 AM
I have a strange feeling, that all this push for Democracy is destabilizing Pakistan and not helping us in pacifying Taliban and eliminating AQ. We don't insist on democracy in Saudi Arabia that much, we don't really try too hard to reduce drug production in Afghanistan, so why suddenly pick on Pakistan?
Frankly I don't care what color is the cat, as long as it catches mice...
Posted by thanos | September 24, 2007 8:21 AM
One other tack Musharraf might take -- he could stand his wife in his stead for the election as Nawaz Sharif is.
In another note the gov't is also watching out for burqa-clad suicide bombers from Jamia Hafsa.
Noblesse Oblige
Posted by Howard C | September 24, 2007 5:40 PM
I'm sure the Democrats are responsible somehow.
Posted by ss396 | September 24, 2007 9:30 PM
This really is worrisome, and the situation of Musharraf's political power decline has been growing; it is not a new, sudden phenomena. I long thought that the reports of his declining support over the trouble he created over that Supreme Judge issue were overblown. Perhaps they were, but banishing and/or arresting the opposition does not endear the populace. Trying to fire the judge may well have been the next-to-the-next-to-the-next-to-the-last straw.
If Pakistan becomes unreliable in our War on Terrorism, we then have the R&R base for Al-Qaida to make them unbeatable. Viet Nam showed that if you allow the enemy a sanctuary you cannot defeat them. The Al-Qaida presence in Waziristan absolutely must be pressured out of existence – bombs, bullets, bandits, bullhorns; I don’t much care which. If Masharraf cannot do that, we have to come up with an alternative. The US could go in there and rout them, but that really is Hobson's choice: do we allow Al-Qaida a sanctuary to which they can always retire, and from wence they can always launch another escapade? Or do we deny them sanctuary, but make an enemy of a huge portion of Pakistani citizens while swelling the ranks of terrorists beyond the Al-Qaida that we kill?
We need to develop another way before Musharraf becomes totally ineffective. Waziristan is intolerable to US interests.
Perhaps we can send some of the Blackwater security folks into Pakistan (deniably) after Congress forces the State Department to jerk their contract.