December 11, 2007

Does Mormonism Matter?

According to a new Gallup poll, the supposed hurdle for Mormons in a presidential campaign has been somewhat overstated. Only one in six Americans, including a fairly equal representation of Democrats and Republicans, would refuse to vote for a well-qualified Mormon:

A new Gallup Poll finds about one in six Americans, including similar proportions of Republicans and Democrats, indicating they would not support their party's nominee for president if that person were a Mormon.

The poll was conducted in the days immediately following a major speech by Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, in which he attempted to quiet voter concern about his Mormon religion. The speech appeared to be a response to the political situation in Iowa, where former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who has made his Christian faith a centerpiece of his Republican presidential campaign, has taken the lead in the Iowa caucus polls.

According to the Dec. 6-9 Gallup survey, Americans are about as likely today (80%) as they were in March (77%) to say they would vote for a Mormon if their party nominated someone of that faith for president. At that time, 19% said they would not vote for a Mormon presidential candidate. However, in early February, just before Romney officially declared his candidacy for president, the percentage saying they would not vote for a Mormon was somewhat higher, at 24%.

Interestingly, independents have less of a problem with Mormons than either party. While Democrats and Republicans have 18% of their ranks who won't vote for a Mormon, only 14% among independents see the LDS faith as a problem.

The numbers don't appear far out of range with other contentious categories. Twelve percent of the electorate say they will not vote for a woman or a Hispanic, while only five percent will reject a black candidate. Jewish candidates score better than Mormons at six percent, but not quite as well as Catholics at 4%. Atheists, on the other hand, face an overwhelming opposition of 48%, the only Gallup category where the negative outweighs the positive. A slim majority say they would vote for a homosexual.

So what does this mean for Romney? With 80% of the electorate (and of the GOP) willing to vote for Romney, he's not quite in the vise that some may have assumed. On the other hand, in a tight general election, that 17% in the GOP may be sorely missed. Romney may still need to press the public to understand that he doesn't intend to be the American Pope -- an unfortunate state for the American electorate, and one that should be an embarrassment to all. (via Jim Geraghty)

Posted by Ed Morrissey on December 11, 2007 11:33 AM | Comments () | TrackBacks (0)

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Captain Ed is a father and grandfather living in the Twin Cities area of Minnesota, a native Californian who moved to the North Star State because of the weather. He lives with his wife Marcia, also known as the First Mate, their two dogs, and frequently watch their granddaughter Kayla, whom Captain Ed calls The Little Admiral.

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