The Last Time The Polls Were Unanimous ... (Update: McCainia In Nevada, Too?)
Is it just me, or is anyone else getting flashbacks to New Hampshire? USA Today and Gallup announced the results of their latest national survey, and confirm that John McCain has more than doubled his support to jump into first place, while Hillary Clinton has pulled away from Barack Obama again. This flurry of polling data corroborates each other nicely .... just like the polling did in the Granite State:
RepublicansMcCain: 33%, up from 19% a week ago. Mike Huckabee: 19%, down from 25%. Rudy Giuliani: 13%; down from 20%. Mitt Romney: 11%; up from 9%. Fred Thompson: 9%; down from 12%. Rep. Ron Paul: 3%; down from 4%. Rep. Duncan Hunter: 2%; up from 1%. Alan Keyes: 1%; vs. 0. Democrats
Clinton: 45%; up from 33%.
Obama: 33%, unchanged.
John Edwards: 13%; down from 20%.
Rep. Dennis Kucinich: 1%; down from 3%.
Mike Gravel: 1%; vs. 0.
The sample looks good, over 800 Republican voters, and the results match up well with everything else we're seeing from pollsters over the last few days. There is no reason to predict a prognostication debacle, no reason at all. It just seems ... a little eerie.
If these results are correct, it looks like McCain has pulled support away from Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani. Romney has only the slightest bump upward, and Thompson had better hope he catches fire in South Carolina. Hillary has soaked up the support from all of the Democrats driven from the race, with wailing and gnashing of teeth, and a good piece of John Edwards' backers.
UPDATE: The Reno Gazette-Journal has polled 500 likely Nevada caucus-goers in each party for Saturday's contest, and the Democrats have a three-way jam. McCain has a small lead over Rudy, but the big surprise may be Romney's weak showing:
A new poll by the Reno Gazette-Journal shows a neck-and-neck three-way race among Democrats for Saturday's caucus. On the Republican side, U.S. Sen. John McCain has taken his first lead in Nevada of the election season, and Mitt Romney, who has been working Nevada harder than any other Republican, is trailing in fourth place.
Right now it shows Obama leading at 32%, followed by Clinton at 30% and Edwards remaining surprisingly strong at 27%, almost within the margin of error of the lead. McCain leads the GOP with 22%, followed by Giuliani at 28%, Huckabee at 16%, and Romney trailing at 15%, with Fred coming in last among the top tier at 11%.
Ron Paul, who has also done some campaigning and organizing in Nevada -- and who won the endorsement of Dennis Hof, the proprietor of the Moonlight Bunny Ranch brothel -- can't get past that single-digit barrier at 6%. Like New Hampshire, Nevada's hands-off libertarianism should have made the state fertile ground for the Revolution, but it appears Paul is headed for the fringe yet again.
Posted by Ed Morrissey on January 14, 2008 3:39 PM | Comments () | TrackBacks (1)
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