New Gallup Poll Challenges Assumptions
Gallup has its latest national polling on the presidential primaries, and it challenges a few recent assumptions. On the Democratic side, the addition of Al Gore has much less impact on the support for the two frontrunners. For Republicans, the addition of Thompson would shake up the race, but a more recent declaration of rigor mortis seems far off base:
With only about six months remaining before the Iowa caucuses, the races for the Republican and Democratic presidential nominations remain in a steady state. Republican Rudy Giuliani and Democrat Hillary Clinton continue to hold statistically significant leads over the rest of their respective fields of competitors. The most notable recent change this year has been on the Republican side, where John McCain's recent dip in the polls and Fred Thompson's recent gains have resulted in the two switching second and third places. Even though Al Gore would draw significant support for the Democratic nomination, recent polls suggest his entry would not alter the basic structure of that race. ...Clinton leads the pack of Democratic hopefuls on both ballot measures, pulling in 37% support with Gore in the race and 42% with him factored out. Obama places second by a narrow margin with Gore in the race and a more comfortable margin when Gore's support is re-allocated. Gore draws 16%, essentially tying him for third with Edwards at 13% (Edwards' support is 16% without Gore.) No other candidate receives more than 4% support. ...
Giuliani continues to be the top choice of Republicans for his party's 2008 presidential nomination, with Fred Thompson following next, John McCain in third, and Mitt Romney in fourth. The percentage of support for these candidates varies little depending on whether reluctant candidate Newt Gingrich -- who is supported by only 6% of Republicans -- is included in the race. None of the remaining Republican candidates score higher than 3% in the poll.
John McCain seems to still have some life in the campaign. His numbers have dropped, but he still scores higher -- and raised more money -- than John Edwards did for his third-place finish. If Fred Thompson were to enter the race now, he might be able to bury his old friend by stripping him of the remainder of his support. The longer Fred waits to enter the race, the more opportunity McCain has to retool his campaign and make up lost ground. Now with rumor having Fred waiting until September, that window may be large enough to turn things around.
Giuliani still shows amazing strength, considering the attacks in Q2 before the immigration debate took the focus off the race. His strategy of getting the controversies out early appears to be working. He's doubled up on McCain and double-digits ahead of a non-campaigning Fred Thompson. He's made it to the point where most Republicans will give him a first or second choice position for the nomination, which indicates that he's been convincing on core principles of national security thus far, even if his domestic policies appear to diverge significantly from the GOP base.
Fred has to like these numbers as well, but he shouldn't spend too much time admiring them. At some point, voters will want to see him engage, and that point is coming fast. He's done a masterful job of running a non-campaign campaign, but he won't get solid support until he commits completely to the race.
For Democrats, especially the hard-left wing, the lack of impact of Al Gore's future entry into the race must be frustrating. Gore's entry does not apparently energize a large portion of the party. The activist Left appears split between Edwards and Obama, while Hillary retains a commanding lead under every possible configuration of the primary race. The challenge will be to see which darling of the Left will get drafted to bring ideological balance the ticket -- and that's not much of a guess. With Obama outperforming Hillary on fundraising and Edwards barely registering on contributions now, Edwards can't expect another shot at the bottom of the ticket.
One race looks to be all but over, while the other couldn't possibly be more wide open. It will be interesting to see when the Republicans start to coalesce around one particular candidate. It may wait until February 5th's near-national primary day.
Posted by Ed Morrissey on July 12, 2007 11:32 AM | Comments (17) | TrackBacks (1)
Comments (17)
Posted by Terry | July 12, 2007 12:13 PM
"The longer Fred waits to enter the race, the more opportunity McCain has to retool his campaign and make up lost ground. Now with rumor having Fred waiting until September, that window may be large enough to turn things around."
McCain CAN NOT WIN. It is over for him.
He is against free speech, for more gun regulation, for more government(Fed. run boxing commission) for amensty.
He will never win the Republican nomination.
What is so hard to understand Captn. Ed?
Posted by reddog | July 12, 2007 12:28 PM
It remains to be seen if the Republicans are smart enough to go with Giuliani. He would represent a return to the basic values of law and order and fiscal responsibility without the gansterism of the Bushies. He would prosecute the war on terror without foreign adventurism.
Going with Rudy is an admission that they were wrong. Wrong on Iraq. Wrong on the suspension of Constitutional rights. Wrong on pandering to the bigotry of hate mongering Fundies.
I don't think they can do it but if they can, they could beat a ticket headed by Hiliary. If the Dems go with anybody but Hiliary there is no hope.
Posted by BJW | July 12, 2007 12:43 PM
I just became a Rudy volunteer today - could not agree more reddog. In my heart of hearts I truly believe Rudy is our last best chance to really turn this mess around.
Posted by Hugh Beaumont | July 12, 2007 1:10 PM
Wrong on the suspension of Constitutional rights.
WTF? Can someone explain what Constitutional rights have been violated by Bush?
Has any act of Bush not been challenged and presented before the courts?
How does this claim square with the facts?
Do non-citizen combatants have Constitutional rights?
Posted by J. Mark English | July 12, 2007 1:56 PM
Its hard to believe that the Democrats would really race to embrace Gore if he really did run...
As for Thompson...he's better then any of the other guys who are in there right now...talk about a weak field...
http://www.americanlegends.blogspot.com/
Posted by Carol Herman | July 12, 2007 2:23 PM
The winds of change are always blowing.
Heck, there was a time when only men voted, that drinks were served in exchange of your appearing, on election day, ready to cast your ballot.
We've even seen the TV making a difference. As people who listened to the first Nixon/Kennedy debate were sure Nixon won it. But those that watched on TV gained the upper hand. Nixon sweated a lot. And, by visual definition, lost.
Now?
Well, we're no longer in the same situation as used to exist, when candidates had to appear before important edictorial boards; to make their case. Today? You think it matters what the New Yuk Times or the WaPo chooses to endorse? We're not talking local dog catchers, here.
The Internet is still showing its possibiliites.
Heck, Fred Thompson, just sending in an essay to Power Line, yesterday; if you had to guess. How many eyes have this this wonderfully constructed defense on the meaning of being a lawyer? (Has nothing to do with adopting the viewpoints of your clients. But the bigger reality, that in our system everyone deserves representation in front of the law. And, lawyers gotta do it. Similar to doctors. Especially those that train in the world's worst neighborhoods.)
My ex is a cardiologist. His basic training was at New York Medical School. And, his internship and residency was at Metropolitan Hospital; a sister hospital to Harlem's. He talk about how they'd fix up a patient, see health return. And, KNOW they were putting a criminal who would do more harms, back out on the streets. Still, doctors treat sick people. No questions asked.
I presume we're not getting as well served from the terrorists' trained doctors. But at least, now, we're more aware, rather than less so.
I think Fred Thompson is showing that he has the ability to attract voters; FRUGALLY. I was gonna say "on the cheap." But that connotation would be wrong. FRUGAL was one of FDR's axioms, as well. Even in the White House, where it wasn't french cooking that was put on the plates! FDR watched all his costs.
And, that's what's blowing in the wind.
It's not going to be about Iowa. Heck, even if John McVain nails Iowa, he ain't gonna go anywhere. Sort'a like watching a race where only some boats have oars left to stick in the waters.
Of course, it's not 3-way yet. Besides, McPain, there are other shnooks who aren't taking low poll numbers for their answer to exit. Why is this? I guess running around the country to campaign is made easier. So we get Ron Paul and Mike Gavel, too.
While Barnum knew that clowns were essential to the circus.
Posted by Carol Herman | July 12, 2007 2:29 PM
Let's say Rudy wins the nomination?
One of the best books on Lincoln is called TEAM OF RIVALS, by Doris Kearns Goodwin.
As soon as Lincoln, who had been in 4th place, wins the republican nomination in 1860; he went to his 3 rials, and promised them seats in his cabinet. And, yes, he was able to deal with their egos. And, there personal animosities to EACH OTHER. Lincoln was well served.
Of the 3 current top condendahs: Guiliani, Fred Thompson, and Mitt Romney; one of the sanest moves would be for a candidate to speak to the needs to HEAL the party. BY KNOWING that each of these teams has top talent getting them onto the race track.
Imagine, if you will, a winnah who understands this. Who then comes into office, and you know where he's gonna be seating people. Who also have HEFT when it comes to attracting talent to their sides.
No one man can run the entire government. It's gonna take TEAM EFFORTS to fix a lot of the things that are broken in DC. So you might ask what other hats could be worn, once the current contest enters it's clutch?
Meanwhile, I hope FRED THOMPSON treats the Internet as a two-way street, reading the opinions of ordinary folks who come on board to comment.
Posted by David Glick | July 12, 2007 2:52 PM
Fred Thompson is lazy. He is putting off entering the race for as long as possible so that he can avoid discussing issues, participating in debates and having to hit the campaign trail. As shown by all of his recent speeches, he has very little grasp of the issues and instead continues to spout off a million platitudes. Do we really want a cigar-smoking-red-neck president who will constantly compare important issues to those of a pig farm?
Posted by LuckyBogey | July 12, 2007 3:30 PM
David: Don't forget about Fred's rented red pickup truck!
Answer: Yes, we really want a cigar-smoking-red-neck president. Note there are many things one may learn on a pig farm. I'm with Fred!
Posted by capitano | July 12, 2007 3:34 PM
Well, yeah! ... or was that a rhetorical question?
Posted by the fly-man | July 12, 2007 3:43 PM
Polls challenging assumptions? Where did the assumptions come from?
Posted by sherlock | July 12, 2007 4:06 PM
"One race looks to be all but over, while the other couldn't possibly be more wide open."
With the Democrat-annointee's negatives at over 50%, and the Republican field holding 3 and possibly 4 substantial candidates, the big race is over too, it's just that nobody can see it with the constant fatuous coverage of the Dems every curl of the pinkie.
Example (warning-may induce nausea):
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1642649-1,00.html
BTW the above piece was headlined "Leveling the Praying Field" up till a few minutes ago!
The only way the Dems will get into the White House is if all the Repub candidates are smeared to high heaven - and that is exactly what the MSM will be doing for the next year. They may may peaking early though!
Posted by roc ingersol | July 12, 2007 4:27 PM
I don't want Thompson but for entirely different reasons then listed by Mr. Glick.
I don't want someone who was an advocate for McCain-Feingold, voted against tort reform, voted no on the Clinton perjury charge, quit the Senate when the country needed him most to go back to acting and lobbying, co-chaired McCains 2000 run, denied lobbying for prochoice then backtracked with spin on why he did, has no CEO or management experience in either business or politics, accomplished nothing as a Senator, had only a 86% conservative rating and now has tried to convince people into believing he is the ultra conservative.
Posted by Fight4TheRight | July 12, 2007 5:14 PM
Every week it seems another blog or newscast will try to figure out how Rudy is still showing such strong numbers, what with the issues of abortion, gun control, ex wives, etc ad nauseum.
My view is this. Rudy continues to be strong because he is ADAMANTLY for an aggressive continuation and escalation of the Global War on Terror.
I don't care what anyone says....the 2008 Presidential Election won't be decided by the Iraq War situation, it won't be decided by the economy or price of gas and it won't be decided by who the potential First Lady or First Man would be. It will be decided on what candidate has won the trust of the American people that he/she will protect us from another 9/11, and who will destroy the threat in this World.
Rudy grabbed the torch on the GWOT early, he hasn't let go of it and the others aren't even in the same ballpark with him on strength of conviction on it.
Mark my words....come the summer of '08, no matter what the situation is in Iraq, Hillary Clinton will ascend every podium with a "I Will Fight Terrorism To The Ends of the Earth" speech.
Posted by Del Dolemonte | July 12, 2007 5:57 PM
sherlock said:
"The only way the Dems will get into the White House is if all the Repub candidates are smeared to high heaven - and that is exactly what the MSM will be doing for the next year. They may may peaking early though!"
No, they're not peaking early, You have to remember who pulls their strings-Clinton, Inc.
Posted by Ken Oglesby | July 12, 2007 7:03 PM
The last republican I supported wholeheartedly won 2 terms in the White House.
I intend to support Fred Thompson in the same manner,but only if he gets in the race.
And frankly,I am getting tired of waiting.
If he doesn't declare one way or the other pretty soon,my vote next year will be a write-in vote.
Write-in because no one else on the republican side excites the slightest modicum of interest and I'll vote defeatocrat the day after I see icebergs in Hades.
Come on,Fred.
RUN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by jaeger51 | July 12, 2007 9:58 PM
I agree with many earlier comments...not sure if Fred really thinks like a redneck..but if he does...having redneckian values would be a BIG plus. East Coast elite values are what's gotten the country in the mess it is in. They've never been useful.